Abilene Christian

14-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

21.6%Abilene Christian

78.4%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -8.9

PROJECTED TOTAL144.3

MODEL MONEYLINETexas State -363

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAbilene Christian 68

Projected Total144.3

Projected ScoreTexas State 77

Team Comparison

Abilene ChristianMetricTexas State

42.4MMH Power Index49.4

101.1Offensive Efficiency107.7

104.1Defensive Efficiency103.4

-3.0Net Efficiency4.3

-1.4Strength of Schedule-4.7

-5.3Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

69.6Tempo68.6

48.9%Effective FG%51.3%

20.6%Turnover Rate18.4%

32.4%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

42.0%Free Throw Rate36.0%

-2.1Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Texas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY78.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTexas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.4–42.4), offensive efficiency (107.7–101.1), defensive efficiency (103.4–104.1), net efficiency (4.3–-3.0).

Abilene Christian COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.4–-4.7), free throw rate (42.0–36.0).

Final

Abilene Christian

49—63

Texas State

Texas State by 14 • 63.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Abilene ChristianTEAM STATTexas State

17-55FG21-46

31.0%FG%46.0%

5-153PT5-8

33.0%3PT%63.0%

10-19FT16-22

53.0%FT%73.0%

34Rebounds38

17Offensive Rebounds12

6Assists8

16Turnovers19

14Steals11

5Blocks9

19Fouls15

Player Box Score

Abilene Christian

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Bradyn Hubbard	F	21	4-7	2-2	3-7	1	0	1	0	13
Cbo Newton	G	26	2-7	1-3	1-2	2	1	4	0	6
Christian Alston	G	15	2-6	0-1	2-4	3	0	0	1	6
Joseph Venzant	G	26	1-3	1-2	1-2	2	0	1	0	4
Zy Wright	G	18	2-5	0-1	0-0	4	0	2	0	4
Joseph Scott	F	14	1-4	0-0	2-2	7	0	0	1	4
Cade Hornecker	F	11	2-7	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	1	4
Yaniel Rivera	G	24	1-5	1-2	0-0	2	4	4	1	3
Rich Smith	G	20	1-3	0-0	1-2	2	1	1	0	3
Ma'Shy Hill	F	9	1-4	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Isaac Dye	G	9	0-3	0-3	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Tylan Lewis	G	4	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Isaiah Carrillo	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dimp Pernell	G	19	4-6	2-2	3-3	2	2	0	0	13
DJ Hall	F	37	3-6	0-0	5-6	10	2	1	2	11
Makai Willis	C	19	4-6	0-0	3-4	2	0	2	1	11
Franck Emmou	G	29	3-7	2-2	2-2	4	2	2	0	10
Kaden Gumbs	G	25	3-4	1-1	1-2	3	1	4	1	8
Mark Drone	G	30	2-10	0-2	2-2	4	0	1	0	6
Kyndall Davis	G	19	1-2	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	3	2
Tay Knox	C	16	1-4	0-0	0-3	5	1	1	1	2
Jalen Bolden	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Barganier	F	1	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Deke Thompson	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Cameron Simpson	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Jaelyn Lee	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.3Possessions63.3

77.4Offensive Efficiency99.5

99.5Defensive Efficiency77.4

-22.1Net Efficiency22.1

35.5%Effective FG%51.1%

38.3%True Shooting %55.8%

25.4%Turnover Rate29.9%

34.5%Free Throw Rate47.8%

27.3%3-Point Rate17.4%

0.38Assist / Turnover0.42

Game Summary

Texas State won by 14 points. The game played at approximately 63.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.