Alabama State

10-22

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

76.2%Alabama State

23.8%Air Force

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADAlabama State -7.0

PROJECTED TOTAL146.9

MODEL MONEYLINEAlabama State -320

Air Force

3-29

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAlabama State 77

Projected Total146.9

Projected ScoreAir Force 70

Team Comparison

Alabama StateMetricAir Force

38MMH Power Index23

101.7Offensive Efficiency91.3

107.4Defensive Efficiency118.5

-5.7Net Efficiency-27.2

-6.2Strength of Schedule6.2

0.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-33.5

71.9Tempo67.4

48.2%Effective FG%49.0%

18.2%Turnover Rate21.9%

32.6%Offensive Rebound %21.4%

35.8%Free Throw Rate35.9%

-4.1Average Margin-18.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Alabama State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY76.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMAlabama State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (38.0–23.0), offensive efficiency (101.7–91.3), defensive efficiency (107.4–118.5), net efficiency (-5.7–-27.2).

Air Force COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.2–-6.2), shooting efficiency (49.0–48.2), free throw rate (35.9–35.8).

Final

Alabama State

64—66

Air Force

Air Force by 2 • 66.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Alabama StateTEAM STATAir Force

22-55FG21-42

40.0%FG%50.0%

5-193PT9-21

26.0%3PT%43.0%

15-19FT15-23

79.0%FT%65.0%

24Rebounds33

6Offensive Rebounds6

4Assists15

11Turnovers17

10Steals4

4Blocks4

19Fouls15

Player Box Score

Alabama State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Micah Simpson	G	35	10-17	4-9	6-6	1	1	1	0	30
Asjon Anderson	G	31	4-13	1-7	5-7	2	2	0	1	14
Jerquarius Stanback	F	25	3-3	0-0	2-2	3	0	3	2	8
Tyler Byrd	G	22	2-4	0-1	1-2	1	1	3	0	5
R'Chaun King	F	17	1-4	0-0	1-2	3	0	2	0	3
Cameron Palesse	G	32	1-7	0-2	0-0	6	0	0	0	2
Damarien Yates	G	15	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	2
Tyler Mason	F	14	0-4	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	1	0
Mario Andrews	C	9	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Air Force

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Lucas Hobin	F	39	6-13	4-10	4-4	2	1	1	0	20
Caleb Walker	F	32	6-6	0-0	5-10	12	1	1	3	17
Ethan Greenberg	G	38	4-8	3-5	2-2	4	1	0	0	13
Kam Sanders	G	33	2-9	1-5	2-4	4	6	1	0	7
Eli Robinson	F	24	2-4	1-1	0-0	3	3	1	0	5
Kolby Gilles	F	13	1-2	0-0	2-2	0	0	0	0	4
Wesley Celichowski	C	9	0-0	0-0	0-1	3	0	0	0	0
A.J. Patterson	G	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	2	0	0	0
Justin Hinds	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.5Possessions66.5

96.2Offensive Efficiency99.2

99.2Defensive Efficiency96.2

-3.0Net Efficiency3.0

44.5%Effective FG%60.7%

50.0%True Shooting %62.4%

15.9%Turnover Rate26.6%

34.5%Free Throw Rate54.8%

34.5%3-Point Rate50.0%

0.36Assist / Turnover0.88

Game Summary

Air Force won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 66.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.