Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

12.4%Arkansas State

87.6%Saint Mary's

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSaint Mary's -13.1

PROJECTED TOTAL153.2

MODEL MONEYLINESaint Mary's -706

Saint Mary's

27-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 70

Projected Total153.2

Projected ScoreSaint Mary's 83

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricSaint Mary's

57.7MMH Power Index70.7

113.1Offensive Efficiency116.7

105.3Defensive Efficiency97.4

7.8Net Efficiency19.3

-1.0Strength of Schedule3.0

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency18.6

73.3Tempo66.3

52.7%Effective FG%53.1%

19.4%Turnover Rate16.6%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.8%

5.8Average Margin12.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Saint Mary's HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY87.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSaint Mary's holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (70.7–57.7), offensive efficiency (116.7–113.1), defensive efficiency (97.4–105.3), net efficiency (19.3–7.8).

Arkansas State COUNTERS WITHoffensive rebounding (38.1–37.4), free throw rate (39.6–36.8).

Final

Arkansas State

72—85

Saint Mary's

Saint Mary's by 13 • 69.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATSaint Mary's

26-69FG26-53

38.0%FG%49.0%

9-293PT8-16

31.0%3PT%50.0%

11-13FT25-33

85.0%FT%76.0%

35Rebounds40

16Offensive Rebounds13

16Assists17

10Turnovers13

8Steals6

3Blocks7

25Fouls16

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Christian Harmon	G	30	8-17	4-9	1-1	4	1	0	0	21
Matt Hayman	G	22	5-13	2-8	0-0	6	0	2	0	12
Royal Blue Smith	G	18	4-5	2-3	0-0	1	0	2	1	10
TJ Caldwell	G	24	2-8	1-4	3-4	1	1	0	0	8
Chudi Dioramma	F	24	2-6	0-0	4-4	4	3	0	0	8
Chandler Jackson	G	30	2-10	0-2	0-1	2	6	0	0	4
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	22	1-6	0-3	2-2	3	2	1	1	4
Jalen Hampton	G	16	1-2	0-0	1-1	5	3	2	0	3
Aly Tounkara	F	14	1-2	0-0	0-0	5	0	1	1	2

Saint Mary's

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Paulius Murauskas	F	35	8-15	0-2	8-10	9	1	1	2	24
Mikey Lewis	G	34	6-14	3-5	2-3	5	6	1	0	17
Andrew McKeever	C	32	4-9	0-0	8-12	17	2	0	5	16
Liam Campbell	G	33	5-7	3-4	2-2	2	0	0	0	15
Joshua Dent	G	38	2-5	1-3	4-4	0	7	2	0	9
Kevin Gad	F	7	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Harry Wessels	C	8	0-0	0-0	1-2	1	0	1	0	1
Dillan Shaw	G	7	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Rory Hawke	G	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.0Possessions69.0

104.3Offensive Efficiency123.2

123.2Defensive Efficiency104.3

-18.8Net Efficiency18.8

44.2%Effective FG%56.6%

47.9%True Shooting %61.9%

14.5%Turnover Rate18.9%

18.8%Free Throw Rate62.3%

42.0%3-Point Rate30.2%

1.60Assist / Turnover1.31

Game Summary

Saint Mary's won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 69.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.