Northwestern

15-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

11.8%Northwestern

88.2%Virginia

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -14.3

PROJECTED TOTAL148.6

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -747

Virginia

30-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthwestern 67

Projected Total148.6

Projected ScoreVirginia 81

Team Comparison

NorthwesternMetricVirginia

55.4MMH Power Index68.9

111.6Offensive Efficiency119.0

109.8Defensive Efficiency101.8

1.8Net Efficiency17.2

5.6Strength of Schedule5.2

-2.7Last 10 Net Efficiency6.4

65.6Tempo67.6

51.9%Effective FG%55.0%

13.0%Turnover Rate16.0%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %37.4%

34.8%Free Throw Rate33.2%

1.2Average Margin11.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY88.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–55.4), offensive efficiency (119.0–111.6), defensive efficiency (101.8–109.8), net efficiency (17.2–1.8).

Northwestern COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (5.6–5.2), ball security (13.0–16.0), free throw rate (34.8–33.2).

Final

Northwestern

78—83

Virginia

Virginia by 5 • 70.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

NorthwesternTEAM STATVirginia

27-58FG24-64

47.0%FG%38.0%

7-163PT5-24

44.0%3PT%21.0%

17-24FT30-36

71.0%FT%83.0%

25Rebounds49

6Offensive Rebounds21

14Assists8

7Turnovers11

7Steals4

1Blocks4

29Fouls22

Player Box Score

Northwestern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jayden Reid	G	27	6-15	2-3	11-14	4	5	2	0	25
Arrinten Page	F	33	8-14	2-6	2-3	6	2	1	0	20
Nick Martinelli	F	38	3-12	1-2	2-4	3	2	1	1	9
Angelo Ciaravino	G	25	3-5	0-1	0-0	3	3	0	0	6
Tre Singleton	F	23	2-2	1-1	1-1	5	1	0	0	6
Justin Mullins	G	24	2-4	0-1	1-2	0	0	1	0	5
Jake West	G	9	2-3	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	4
K.J. Windham	G	11	1-2	1-2	0-0	0	0	2	0	3
Max Green	G	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Kropp	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Thijs De Ridder	F	27	9-15	0-1	8-9	8	0	0	1	26
Chance Mallory	G	25	3-7	1-4	9-10	8	1	2	0	16
Malik Thomas	G	32	3-11	1-4	7-8	5	3	1	0	14
Dallin Hall	G	29	2-9	2-4	5-6	4	1	0	1	11
Sam Lewis	G	27	4-9	1-4	0-0	6	0	1	0	9
Johann Grunloh	C	31	2-6	0-2	1-3	7	3	0	2	5
Ugonna Onyenso	C	9	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Jacari White	G	13	0-4	0-3	0-0	3	0	0	0	0
Devin Tillis	F	7	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

70.8Possessions70.8

110.2Offensive Efficiency117.2

117.2Defensive Efficiency110.2

-7.1Net Efficiency7.1

52.6%Effective FG%41.4%

56.2%True Shooting %51.2%

9.9%Turnover Rate15.5%

41.4%Free Throw Rate56.3%

27.6%3-Point Rate37.5%

2.00Assist / Turnover0.73

Game Summary

Virginia won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 70.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.