Little Rock

12-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

24.8%Little Rock

75.2%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -8.4

PROJECTED TOTAL145.5

MODEL MONEYLINETexas State -303

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreLittle Rock 69

Projected Total145.5

Projected ScoreTexas State 77

Team Comparison

Little RockMetricTexas State

44MMH Power Index49.4

103.0Offensive Efficiency107.7

108.2Defensive Efficiency103.4

-5.2Net Efficiency4.3

0.5Strength of Schedule-4.7

-0.7Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

68.5Tempo68.6

50.3%Effective FG%51.3%

18.7%Turnover Rate18.4%

32.1%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

28.6%Free Throw Rate36.0%

-3.6Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Texas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTexas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.4–44.0), offensive efficiency (107.7–103.0), defensive efficiency (103.4–108.2), net efficiency (4.3–-5.2).

Little Rock COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.5–-4.7).

Final

Little Rock

56—65

Texas State

Texas State by 9 • 64.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Little RockTEAM STATTexas State

20-54FG26-50

37.0%FG%52.0%

4-143PT4-11

29.0%3PT%36.0%

12-18FT9-16

67.0%FT%56.0%

29Rebounds37

12Offensive Rebounds11

10Assists15

15Turnovers17

11Steals6

5Blocks3

15Fouls18

Player Box Score

Little Rock

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cameron Wallace	F	27	5-11	0-0	4-8	5	0	1	0	14
Tuongthach Gatkek	F	27	5-6	0-0	3-3	5	1	1	2	13
Johnathan Lawson	G	38	3-11	2-7	2-2	2	2	2	1	10
Braxton Bayless	G	36	4-14	2-4	0-0	4	2	3	0	10
Kachi Nzeh	F	30	2-6	0-1	2-2	6	2	2	1	6
Tracy Steele Jr.	G	29	1-5	0-2	1-3	5	3	1	0	3
Christian Hughes	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Terrion Burgess	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0
Caleb Pennyfeather	F	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Joseph Thomas	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mark Drone	G	32	6-9	0-1	1-3	2	2	1	0	13
Franck Emmou	G	32	5-8	2-3	1-3	5	2	0	0	13
DJ Hall	F	23	4-7	0-0	4-4	5	2	0	0	12
Dimp Pernell	G	26	4-9	0-2	1-2	2	5	1	0	9
Robert Fields	C	20	2-3	0-0	1-2	6	0	0	0	5
Kyndall Davis	G	20	2-5	1-3	0-0	8	2	0	2	5
Kaden Gumbs	G	17	1-3	0-0	1-2	1	2	2	0	3
Jaelyn Lee	G	8	1-2	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Makai Willis	C	9	1-4	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	1	2
Tay Knox	C	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Isaiah Barganier	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Jalen Bolden	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.6Possessions64.6

86.7Offensive Efficiency100.6

100.6Defensive Efficiency86.7

-13.9Net Efficiency13.9

40.7%Effective FG%56.0%

44.8%True Shooting %56.4%

22.9%Turnover Rate26.7%

33.3%Free Throw Rate32.0%

25.9%3-Point Rate22.0%

0.67Assist / Turnover0.88

Game Summary

Texas State won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 64.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.