Jacksonville State

15-17

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

22.6%Jacksonville State

77.4%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -8.2

PROJECTED TOTAL152.6

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -342

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreJacksonville State 72

Projected Total152.6

Projected ScoreArkansas State 80

Team Comparison

Jacksonville StateMetricArkansas State

51.2MMH Power Index57.7

108.2Offensive Efficiency113.1

101.8Defensive Efficiency105.3

6.4Net Efficiency7.8

-2.3Strength of Schedule-1.0

-0.3Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

67.2Tempo73.3

51.0%Effective FG%52.7%

17.0%Turnover Rate19.4%

31.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

44.5%Free Throw Rate39.6%

4.3Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY77.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–51.2), offensive efficiency (113.1–108.2), net efficiency (7.8–6.4), strength of schedule (-1.0–-2.3).

Jacksonville State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.8–105.3), ball security (17.0–19.4), free throw rate (44.5–39.6).

Final

Jacksonville State

63—74

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 11 • 72.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Jacksonville StateTEAM STATArkansas State

20-55FG21-52

36.0%FG%40.0%

4-253PT9-26

16.0%3PT%35.0%

19-29FT23-29

66.0%FT%79.0%

37Rebounds34

12Offensive Rebounds7

9Assists17

15Turnovers15

7Steals11

3Blocks2

23Fouls24

Player Box Score

Jacksonville State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mostapha El Moutaouakkil	G	25	3-11	0-3	10-16	6	2	0	0	16
Jaye Nash	G	20	3-5	0-1	3-4	2	2	1	0	9
Emondrek Erkins-Ford	F	19	3-6	1-2	2-5	6	1	0	1	9
AC Bryant	G	30	2-6	2-6	0-0	4	1	3	0	6
Toby Nnadozie	G	19	2-5	0-0	2-2	4	0	1	0	6
Bencao Vungo	G	18	3-6	0-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	6
Iaroslav Niagu	F	22	2-3	0-0	0-0	6	1	0	2	4
Jacoby Hill	G	14	1-3	0-1	2-2	1	0	0	0	4
Jamar Franklin	G	16	1-7	1-7	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Marcus Fitzgerald Jr.	G	16	0-3	0-3	0-0	0	2	1	0	0
Connor Loy	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Christian Harmon	G	31	5-9	4-7	7-8	3	3	2	0	21
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	24	4-10	2-4	4-5	7	1	3	0	14
Chandler Jackson	G	29	2-5	0-1	7-8	2	5	3	0	11
Aly Tounkara	F	19	4-6	0-0	0-0	4	0	1	1	8
Matt Hayman	G	24	2-9	1-7	2-2	7	3	0	0	7
TJ Caldwell	G	22	2-4	1-3	2-2	4	2	0	0	7
Royal Blue Smith	G	18	1-6	1-4	1-4	2	0	1	0	4
Jalen Hampton	G	25	1-1	0-0	0-0	5	3	1	1	2
Chudi Dioramma	F	8	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.8Possessions72.8

86.5Offensive Efficiency101.6

101.6Defensive Efficiency86.5

-15.1Net Efficiency15.1

40.0%Effective FG%49.0%

45.8%True Shooting %56.3%

20.9%Turnover Rate20.3%

52.7%Free Throw Rate55.8%

45.5%3-Point Rate50.0%

0.60Assist / Turnover1.13

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 72.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.