Cal Poly

14-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

63.7%Cal Poly

36.3%Northern Arizona

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCal Poly -1.8

PROJECTED TOTAL161.4

MODEL MONEYLINECal Poly -175

Northern Arizona

10-22

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal Poly 82

Projected Total161.4

Projected ScoreNorthern Arizona 80

Team Comparison

Cal PolyMetricNorthern Arizona

46.5MMH Power Index36.9

107.2Offensive Efficiency107.1

111.0Defensive Efficiency114.8

-3.8Net Efficiency-7.7

1.7Strength of Schedule-1.8

2.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-16.5

76.6Tempo66.6

52.2%Effective FG%53.5%

19.8%Turnover Rate15.8%

29.9%Offensive Rebound %24.0%

35.8%Free Throw Rate33.6%

-2.9Average Margin-5.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Cal Poly HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY63.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMCal Poly holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (46.5–36.9), offensive efficiency (107.2–107.1), defensive efficiency (111.0–114.8), net efficiency (-3.8–-7.7).

Northern Arizona COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (53.5–52.2), ball security (15.8–19.8).

Final

Cal Poly

87—93

Northern Arizona

Northern Arizona by 6 • 79.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal PolyTEAM STATNorthern Arizona

31-67FG33-63

46.0%FG%52.0%

13-363PT9-22

36.0%3PT%41.0%

12-15FT18-33

80.0%FT%55.0%

38Rebounds41

10Offensive Rebounds12

15Assists14

16Turnovers12

6Steals7

1Blocks3

26Fouls19

Player Box Score

Cal Poly

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Peter Bandelj	G	32	8-14	2-5	2-2	2	4	3	0	20
Hamad Mousa	G	28	6-15	3-10	2-2	8	0	2	0	17
Jake Davis	G	34	5-12	3-8	1-2	3	6	1	0	14
Guzman Vasilic	G	27	3-6	3-6	0-0	2	2	0	0	9
Cayden Ward	G	21	3-6	1-3	1-2	3	2	0	0	8
Ali Assran	F	19	2-5	0-0	4-5	8	1	0	1	8
Kieran Elliott	G	20	1-5	1-4	2-2	5	0	0	0	5
Troy Plumtree	F	9	2-3	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	4
Austin Goode	F	8	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Aaron Price Jr.	PF	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Northern Arizona

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Isaiah Shaw	G	27	6-10	2-5	8-9	5	0	0	2	22
Ryan Abelman	G	37	8-18	4-10	1-2	12	2	3	0	21
Zack Davidson	F	27	6-10	0-0	0-5	7	1	1	0	12
Kavon Bradford	G	26	4-6	0-1	4-6	5	6	1	0	12
Arne Osojnik	G	24	5-11	0-1	2-3	2	0	1	0	12
Brennan Peterson	G	8	2-2	2-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	6
Chris Komin	G	20	1-4	1-3	2-5	4	3	1	0	5
Karl Poom	F	16	1-2	0-0	0-1	4	1	0	0	2
Traivar Jackson	F	10	0-0	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	1	1
Oakland Fort	G	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

79.4Possessions79.4

109.6Offensive Efficiency117.1

117.1Defensive Efficiency109.6

-7.6Net Efficiency7.6

56.0%Effective FG%59.5%

58.7%True Shooting %59.1%

20.0%Turnover Rate15.3%

22.4%Free Throw Rate52.4%

53.7%3-Point Rate34.9%

0.94Assist / Turnover1.17

Game Summary

Northern Arizona won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 79.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.