North Dakota State

27-8

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

41.0%North Dakota State

59.0%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -2.5

PROJECTED TOTAL158.6

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -144

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorth Dakota State 78

Projected Total158.6

Projected ScoreArkansas State 81

Team Comparison

North Dakota StateMetricArkansas State

59MMH Power Index57.7

115.4Offensive Efficiency113.1

100.8Defensive Efficiency105.3

14.6Net Efficiency7.8

-4.6Strength of Schedule-1.0

14.3Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

69.6Tempo73.3

54.5%Effective FG%52.7%

15.5%Turnover Rate19.4%

32.0%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

31.3%Free Throw Rate39.6%

10.1Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

North Dakota State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY59.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorth Dakota State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (59.0–57.7), offensive efficiency (115.4–113.1), defensive efficiency (100.8–105.3), net efficiency (14.6–7.8).

Arkansas State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.0–-4.6), recent form (15.2–14.3), offensive rebounding (38.1–32.0).

Final

North Dakota State

80—85

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 5 • 78.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

North Dakota StateTEAM STATArkansas State

25-64FG27-68

39.0%FG%40.0%

10-253PT11-33

40.0%3PT%33.0%

20-31FT20-22

65.0%FT%91.0%

41Rebounds46

11Offensive Rebounds12

12Assists18

12Turnovers11

9Steals7

3Blocks6

20Fouls22

Player Box Score

North Dakota State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Damari Wheeler-Thomas	G	37	7-13	3-6	11-14	6	2	2	0	28
Noah Feddersen	F	30	3-11	2-4	4-7	4	2	0	1	12
Trevian Carson	G	39	3-10	2-4	2-2	9	2	2	0	10
Treyson Anderson	F	15	4-6	1-2	0-1	6	0	1	1	9
Andy Stefonowicz	G	40	2-6	1-3	1-2	2	5	1	0	6
Carson Smith	G	25	3-6	0-1	0-0	3	0	2	0	6
Markhi Strickland	G	20	2-6	0-0	2-5	7	0	1	1	6
Tay Smith	G	19	1-6	1-5	0-0	1	1	0	0	3

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
TJ Caldwell	G	29	6-11	5-8	2-2	1	3	0	1	19
Matt Hayman	G	26	4-13	3-10	4-4	3	4	3	0	15
Chandler Jackson	G	36	2-9	0-3	6-6	4	5	2	0	10
Chudi Dioramma	F	23	4-7	0-0	2-3	7	1	1	2	10
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	25	3-9	0-2	3-4	8	1	0	0	9
Christian Harmon	G	28	2-7	2-6	2-2	5	0	1	0	8
Jalen Hampton	G	25	3-5	0-0	0-0	11	2	0	1	6
Royal Blue Smith	G	17	2-6	1-4	1-1	3	0	0	0	6
Aly Tounkara	F	16	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	2	0	2	2

Advanced Game Stats

78.6Possessions78.6

101.8Offensive Efficiency108.1

108.1Defensive Efficiency101.8

-6.4Net Efficiency6.4

46.9%Effective FG%47.8%

50.8%True Shooting %54.2%

15.1%Turnover Rate14.2%

48.4%Free Throw Rate32.4%

39.1%3-Point Rate48.5%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.64

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 78.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.