Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

73.4%Arkansas State

26.6%Little Rock

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -5.8

PROJECTED TOTAL154.9

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -276

Little Rock

12-20

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 80

Projected Total154.9

Projected ScoreLittle Rock 75

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricLittle Rock

57.7MMH Power Index44

113.1Offensive Efficiency103.0

105.3Defensive Efficiency108.2

7.8Net Efficiency-5.2

-1.0Strength of Schedule0.5

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.7

73.3Tempo68.5

52.7%Effective FG%50.3%

19.4%Turnover Rate18.7%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %32.1%

39.6%Free Throw Rate28.6%

5.8Average Margin-3.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–44.0), offensive efficiency (113.1–103.0), defensive efficiency (105.3–108.2), net efficiency (7.8–-5.2).

Little Rock COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.5–-1.0), ball security (18.7–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

90—78

Little Rock

Arkansas State by 12 • 71.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATLittle Rock

34-69FG29-57

49.0%FG%51.0%

13-373PT10-20

35.0%3PT%50.0%

9-9FT10-17

100.0%FT%59.0%

42Rebounds24

13Offensive Rebounds3

15Assists14

12Turnovers9

6Steals9

5Blocks5

11Fouls10

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
TJ Caldwell	G	23	6-9	3-6	4-4	4	1	1	3	19
Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	24	6-7	3-3	1-1	2	0	0	0	16
Matt Hayman	G	22	5-9	3-7	2-2	2	4	1	0	15
Royal Blue Smith	G	17	5-10	1-4	0-0	2	1	0	0	11
Jalen Hampton	G	32	4-8	0-1	0-0	13	3	1	1	8
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	23	2-9	2-7	0-0	2	1	0	1	6
Christian Harmon	G	12	2-9	1-8	0-0	3	0	1	0	5
Chandler Jackson	G	23	2-3	0-1	0-0	2	4	1	0	4
Chudi Dioramma	F	16	1-3	0-0	2-2	5	1	0	0	4
Aly Tounkara	F	8	1-2	0-0	0-0	4	0	1	0	2

Little Rock

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnathan Lawson	G	40	13-19	6-9	1-2	3	1	2	0	33
Kachi Nzeh	F	38	11-17	2-6	6-8	5	1	0	4	30
Braxton Bayless	G	38	4-9	2-4	3-4	2	8	2	0	13
Caleb Pennyfeather	F	23	1-4	0-0	0-0	5	1	1	1	2
Christian Hughes	G	33	0-4	0-1	0-2	0	0	3	0	0
Tracy Steele Jr.	G	24	0-2	0-0	0-1	3	2	1	0	0
Cameron Wallace	F	4	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.7Possessions71.7

125.5Offensive Efficiency108.8

108.8Defensive Efficiency125.5

16.7Net Efficiency-16.7

58.7%Effective FG%59.6%

61.4%True Shooting %59.9%

16.6%Turnover Rate12.7%

13.0%Free Throw Rate29.8%

53.6%3-Point Rate35.1%

1.25Assist / Turnover1.56

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 12 points. The game played at approximately 71.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.