Southern

17-17

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

25.8%Southern

74.2%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -7.3

PROJECTED TOTAL153.5

MODEL MONEYLINETexas State -288

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouthern 73

Projected Total153.5

Projected ScoreTexas State 80

Team Comparison

SouthernMetricTexas State

44.5MMH Power Index49.4

108.7Offensive Efficiency107.7

106.4Defensive Efficiency103.4

2.3Net Efficiency4.3

-7.5Strength of Schedule-4.7

2.0Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

73.3Tempo68.6

51.3%Effective FG%51.3%

16.3%Turnover Rate18.4%

31.9%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

40.3%Free Throw Rate36.0%

1.7Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Texas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY74.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTexas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.4–44.5), defensive efficiency (103.4–106.4), net efficiency (4.3–2.3), strength of schedule (-4.7–-7.5).

Southern COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (108.7–107.7), ball security (16.3–18.4), free throw rate (40.3–36.0).

Final

Southern

83—86

Texas State

Texas State by 3 • 79.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

SouthernTEAM STATTexas State

30-63FG28-54

48.0%FG%52.0%

10-263PT7-17

38.0%3PT%41.0%

13-19FT23-31

68.0%FT%74.0%

31Rebounds35

11Offensive Rebounds9

10Assists16

19Turnovers19

13Steals13

4Blocks4

21Fouls17

Player Box Score

Southern

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Fazl Oshodi	G	37	8-21	6-16	0-0	0	2	2	1	22
Malek Abdelgowad	F	25	8-10	0-0	5-8	9	1	3	2	21
Cam Amboree	G	34	5-8	4-5	2-2	2	4	5	0	16
AJ Barnes	F	28	5-12	0-1	4-7	7	1	0	1	14
DaMariee Jones	F	13	3-4	0-0	2-2	3	0	0	0	8
Brandon Hardy	G	29	1-4	0-2	0-0	2	2	2	0	2
Terrance Dixon Jr.	F	13	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Keith Lamar	F	13	0-3	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Ashton Magee	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Lionel Bell	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0
Joe Manning	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mark Drone	G	37	8-13	3-4	4-5	5	5	0	0	23
Kaden Gumbs	G	25	5-7	0-0	5-6	1	4	3	0	15
Kyndall Davis	G	31	4-10	2-7	4-5	8	3	1	2	14
Makai Willis	C	11	3-5	0-0	6-6	2	0	1	0	12
Jalen Bolden	G	30	4-7	2-5	1-1	6	4	3	1	11
Tay Knox	C	16	2-3	0-0	1-4	1	0	2	1	5
DJ Hall	F	24	1-7	0-0	2-2	6	0	1	0	4
Jaelyn Lee	G	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Ky Pernell	G	12	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Robert Fields	C	10	0-0	0-0	0-2	1	0	2	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

79.4Possessions79.4

104.5Offensive Efficiency108.3

108.3Defensive Efficiency104.5

-3.8Net Efficiency3.8

55.6%Effective FG%58.3%

57.6%True Shooting %62.6%

23.7%Turnover Rate24.1%

30.2%Free Throw Rate57.4%

41.3%3-Point Rate31.5%

0.53Assist / Turnover0.84

Game Summary

Texas State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 79.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.