Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

71.0%Arkansas State

29.0%Rice

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -4.5

PROJECTED TOTAL157.4

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -245

Rice

13-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 81

Projected Total157.4

Projected ScoreRice 76

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricRice

57.7MMH Power Index45.1

113.1Offensive Efficiency108.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency109.2

7.8Net Efficiency-0.9

-1.0Strength of Schedule-2.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-4.3

73.3Tempo68.3

52.7%Effective FG%49.7%

19.4%Turnover Rate17.8%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %35.7%

39.6%Free Throw Rate34.7%

5.8Average Margin-0.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY71.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–45.1), offensive efficiency (113.1–108.3), defensive efficiency (105.3–109.2), net efficiency (7.8–-0.9).

Rice COUNTERS WITHball security (17.8–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

76—77

Rice

Rice by 1 • 69.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATRice

30-61FG26-64

49.0%FG%41.0%

4-183PT10-24

22.0%3PT%42.0%

12-19FT15-23

63.0%FT%65.0%

43Rebounds37

13Offensive Rebounds12

11Assists13

11Turnovers7

6Steals8

2Blocks3

17Fouls18

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chandler Jackson	G	23	6-9	0-0	5-8	4	2	1	0	17
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	27	6-9	1-3	2-3	4	2	1	0	15
Matt Hayman	G	28	6-13	0-2	0-0	3	1	0	1	12
Royal Blue Smith	G	19	4-6	1-3	1-3	5	2	1	0	10
Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	19	3-8	1-4	0-0	3	0	1	0	7
TJ Caldwell	G	18	1-5	1-2	2-2	4	0	0	0	5
Jalen Hampton	G	28	2-2	0-0	0-1	5	2	1	0	4
Chudi Dioramma	F	13	1-3	0-0	2-2	5	0	0	1	4
Christian Harmon	G	20	1-6	0-4	0-0	3	2	1	0	2
Aly Tounkara	F	5	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Rice

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Nick Anderson	G	24	4-11	3-8	3-3	3	0	1	0	14
Jalen Smith	G	33	5-9	3-5	0-1	1	6	1	0	13
Trae Broadnax	G	26	3-11	1-3	4-4	6	4	0	0	11
Bodey Howell	G	18	5-10	1-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	11
Eternity Eguagie	F	17	2-3	1-1	5-7	2	1	1	1	10
Jimmy Oladokun Jr.	F	22	4-8	0-0	0-4	5	0	2	0	8
Cam Carroll	G	29	1-8	1-5	2-2	4	1	2	1	5
Stephen Giwa	C	11	2-3	0-0	1-2	6	1	0	1	5
Andrew Akuchie	F	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Jordan Williams	G	10	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.0Possessions69.0

110.1Offensive Efficiency111.6

111.6Defensive Efficiency110.1

-1.4Net Efficiency1.4

52.5%Effective FG%48.4%

54.3%True Shooting %51.4%

16.2%Turnover Rate10.0%

31.1%Free Throw Rate35.9%

29.5%3-Point Rate37.5%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.86

Game Summary

Rice won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 69.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.