Montana State

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

57.0%Montana State

43.0%Cal Poly

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMontana State -2.0

PROJECTED TOTAL162.3

MODEL MONEYLINEMontana State -133

Cal Poly

14-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMontana State 82

Projected Total162.3

Projected ScoreCal Poly 80

Team Comparison

Montana StateMetricCal Poly

53.6MMH Power Index46.5

114.4Offensive Efficiency107.2

104.9Defensive Efficiency111.0

9.5Net Efficiency-3.8

-3.7Strength of Schedule1.7

4.9Last 10 Net Efficiency2.4

68.1Tempo76.6

55.1%Effective FG%52.2%

14.7%Turnover Rate19.8%

28.1%Offensive Rebound %29.9%

30.7%Free Throw Rate35.8%

6.5Average Margin-2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Montana State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY57.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMontana State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.6–46.5), offensive efficiency (114.4–107.2), defensive efficiency (104.9–111.0), net efficiency (9.5–-3.8).

Cal Poly COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.7–-3.7), offensive rebounding (29.9–28.1), free throw rate (35.8–30.7).

Final

Montana State

83—80

Cal Poly

Montana State by 3 • 71.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Montana StateTEAM STATCal Poly

28-66FG25-63

42.0%FG%40.0%

10-363PT8-28

28.0%3PT%29.0%

17-25FT22-31

68.0%FT%71.0%

39Rebounds47

14Offensive Rebounds17

16Assists8

8Turnovers11

5Steals2

2Blocks—

24Fouls22

Player Box Score

Montana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Patrick McMahon	G	34	11-14	2-4	2-6	4	5	1	0	26
Christian King	F	22	6-13	3-7	1-3	8	2	1	0	16
Seth Amunrud	G	29	3-6	1-2	7-7	5	2	0	1	14
Jeremiah Davis	G	27	3-7	1-3	4-5	0	0	0	1	11
Jed Miller	G	34	2-11	2-10	1-1	5	3	2	0	7
Davian Brown	G	19	1-10	1-8	2-2	3	3	0	0	5
Jaden Steppe	F	9	2-3	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	4
Chris Hodges	F	23	0-1	0-0	0-1	7	1	0	0	0
Howie Keene	G	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	1	0	0

Cal Poly

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Cayden Ward	G	31	8-15	2-5	7-8	8	1	0	25
Hamad Mousa	G	26	4-10	1-5	7-9	2	2	0	16
Peter Bandelj	G	33	4-13	1-6	5-5	6	4	1	14
Austin Goode	F	23	2-4	2-3	1-2	3	0	1	7
Ali Assran	F	22	2-5	0-0	0-2	6	0	0	4
Luka Tarlac	G	16	2-4	0-1	0-1	2	1	0	4
Troy Plumtree	F	15	1-4	1-3	1-2	5	0	0	4
Guzman Vasilic	G	12	1-5	1-5	0-0	0	0	0	3
Kieran Elliott	G	9	1-1	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	3
Jake Davis	G	9	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0
Aaron Price Jr.	PF	4	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.8Possessions71.8

115.6Offensive Efficiency111.4

111.4Defensive Efficiency115.6

4.2Net Efficiency-4.2

50.0%Effective FG%46.0%

53.3%True Shooting %51.5%

11.1%Turnover Rate15.3%

37.9%Free Throw Rate49.2%

54.5%3-Point Rate44.4%

2.00Assist / Turnover0.73

Game Summary

Montana State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 71.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.