Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

60.2%Arkansas State

39.8%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -1.5

PROJECTED TOTAL155.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -151

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 78

Projected Total155.0

Projected ScoreTexas State 77

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricTexas State

57.7MMH Power Index49.4

113.1Offensive Efficiency107.7

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.4

7.8Net Efficiency4.3

-1.0Strength of Schedule-4.7

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

73.3Tempo68.6

52.7%Effective FG%51.3%

19.4%Turnover Rate18.4%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.0%

5.8Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY60.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–107.7), net efficiency (7.8–4.3), strength of schedule (-1.0–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–105.3), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

89—70

Texas State

Arkansas State by 19 • 72.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATTexas State

31-55FG26-62

56.0%FG%42.0%

12-223PT3-11

55.0%3PT%27.0%

15-20FT15-18

75.0%FT%83.0%

39Rebounds23

11Offensive Rebounds9

21Assists16

19Turnovers11

4Steals13

3Blocks3

16Fouls17

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Christian Harmon	G	24	6-10	5-7	4-4	5	4	1	0	21
Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	19	5-6	1-2	4-4	3	2	0	0	15
Matt Hayman	G	25	5-10	2-4	2-2	6	3	2	0	14
Jalen Hampton	G	25	4-6	1-1	1-1	2	2	1	1	10
Chudi Dioramma	F	18	4-6	0-0	1-3	8	1	0	1	9
Royal Blue Smith	G	12	2-2	2-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	6
Chandler Jackson	G	28	2-4	0-2	0-2	6	8	0	0	4
Aly Tounkara	F	16	2-3	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	1	4
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	21	1-4	1-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	3
TJ Caldwell	G	12	0-4	0-1	3-4	1	0	0	0	3

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
DJ Hall	F	34	7-16	0-1	1-1	7	1	3	0	15
Mark Drone	G	37	5-11	1-4	3-4	3	4	1	0	14
Kyndall Davis	G	22	5-10	1-2	2-3	1	2	2	0	13
Kaden Gumbs	G	38	3-8	0-0	6-6	3	6	2	0	12
Robert Fields	C	17	3-4	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	6
Tay Knox	C	18	1-2	0-0	1-2	1	0	2	1	3
Jalen Bolden	G	9	1-4	1-2	0-0	0	0	1	0	3
Franck Emmou	G	9	1-4	0-2	0-0	1	2	0	0	2
Jaelyn Lee	G	8	0-1	0-0	2-2	0	0	1	1	2
Makai Willis	C	8	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	1	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.6Possessions72.6

122.6Offensive Efficiency96.4

96.4Defensive Efficiency122.6

26.2Net Efficiency-26.2

67.3%Effective FG%44.4%

69.0%True Shooting %49.6%

26.2%Turnover Rate15.2%

36.4%Free Throw Rate29.0%

40.0%3-Point Rate17.7%

1.11Assist / Turnover1.45

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 19 points. The game played at approximately 72.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.