South Alabama

21-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

42.9%South Alabama

57.1%Texas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTexas State -2.8

PROJECTED TOTAL145.3

MODEL MONEYLINETexas State -133

Texas State

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 71

Projected Total145.3

Projected ScoreTexas State 74

Team Comparison

South AlabamaMetricTexas State

51.4MMH Power Index49.4

110.3Offensive Efficiency107.7

103.9Defensive Efficiency103.4

6.4Net Efficiency4.3

-3.7Strength of Schedule-4.7

3.4Last 10 Net Efficiency9.1

67.4Tempo68.6

53.2%Effective FG%51.3%

12.8%Turnover Rate18.4%

24.9%Offensive Rebound %34.3%

39.8%Free Throw Rate36.0%

4.3Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

South Alabama HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY57.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMSouth Alabama holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.4–49.4), offensive efficiency (110.3–107.7), net efficiency (6.4–4.3), strength of schedule (-3.7–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–103.9), recent form (9.1–3.4), offensive rebounding (34.3–24.9).

Final

South Alabama

65—67

Texas State

Texas State by 2 • 65.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

South AlabamaTEAM STATTexas State

24-52FG21-60

46.0%FG%35.0%

3-153PT5-23

20.0%3PT%22.0%

14-22FT20-22

64.0%FT%91.0%

28Rebounds44

6Offensive Rebounds19

3Assists11

11Turnovers12

9Steals9

7Blocks3

15Fouls18

Player Box Score

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chaze Harris	G	40	9-20	0-1	4-10	6	1	0	1	22
Adam Olsen	F	39	4-12	2-8	10-11	1	1	2	0	20
Jayden Cooper	G	30	4-8	1-3	0-1	2	0	0	0	9
Stephen Williams	F	19	4-4	0-0	0-0	6	0	2	5	8
Randy Brady	F	27	2-4	0-1	0-0	4	0	3	1	4
Hantz Louis-Jeune	G	35	1-3	0-2	0-0	6	1	1	0	2
JJ Wheat	G	10	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
DJ Hall	F	29	5-5	0-0	5-5	6	2	0	0	15
Mark Drone	G	33	5-12	1-5	0-0	4	3	1	0	11
Jalen Bolden	G	24	4-6	2-3	0-0	2	1	1	0	10
Kaden Gumbs	G	29	2-9	0-2	4-5	3	3	2	0	8
Kyndall Davis	G	25	2-12	0-5	4-4	9	0	4	1	8
Franck Emmou	G	21	3-10	2-8	0-0	0	1	1	0	8
Robert Fields	C	17	0-3	0-0	4-4	9	0	0	0	4
Makai Willis	C	12	0-2	0-0	2-2	4	0	0	1	2
Jaelyn Lee	G	2	0-1	0-0	1-2	0	0	0	0	1
Tay Knox	C	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.5Possessions65.5

99.2Offensive Efficiency102.3

102.3Defensive Efficiency99.2

-3.1Net Efficiency3.1

49.0%Effective FG%39.2%

52.0%True Shooting %47.6%

16.3%Turnover Rate18.9%

42.3%Free Throw Rate36.7%

28.8%3-Point Rate38.3%

0.27Assist / Turnover0.92

Game Summary

Texas State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 65.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.