Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

58.9%Arkansas State

41.1%Southern Miss

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -1.5

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -143

Southern Miss

19-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreSouthern Miss 78

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricSouthern Miss

57.7MMH Power Index49.9

113.1Offensive Efficiency106.1

105.3Defensive Efficiency104.9

7.8Net Efficiency1.2

-1.0Strength of Schedule-0.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency3.8

73.3Tempo70.4

52.7%Effective FG%49.9%

19.4%Turnover Rate18.4%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %32.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate43.9%

5.8Average Margin0.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY58.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.9), offensive efficiency (113.1–106.1), net efficiency (7.8–1.2), recent form (15.2–3.8).

Southern Miss COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.9–105.3), strength of schedule (-0.2–-1.0), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

93—86

Southern Miss

Arkansas State by 7 • 71.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATSouthern Miss

29-63FG27-56

46.0%FG%48.0%

8-223PT7-16

36.0%3PT%44.0%

27-33FT25-27

82.0%FT%93.0%

37Rebounds29

16Offensive Rebounds8

11Assists11

9Turnovers11

9Steals5

3Blocks2

19Fouls22

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chandler Jackson	G	27	4-6	1-2	9-12	3	2	1	0	18
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	30	6-11	1-3	3-4	6	2	2	0	16
Jalen Hampton	G	25	6-12	0-1	3-3	7	1	1	2	15
Christian Harmon	G	27	3-7	2-4	6-6	5	5	0	0	14
Royal Blue Smith	G	16	3-6	2-4	2-4	1	0	1	0	10
Chudi Dioramma	F	18	3-4	0-0	0-0	6	0	1	0	6
Matt Hayman	G	17	1-5	1-4	2-2	0	0	0	0	5
Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	14	2-6	1-2	0-0	3	0	1	0	5
TJ Caldwell	G	22	1-4	0-2	2-2	2	1	2	0	4
Aly Tounkara	F	4	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0

Southern Miss

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tylik Weeks	F	34	7-13	0-1	11-12	5	1	0	0	25
Brewer Carruth	G	25	5-10	2-4	4-4	6	2	1	0	16
Curt Lewis	G	33	4-9	4-6	0-0	2	1	1	0	12
Dylan Brumfield	G	23	5-9	0-1	1-1	1	0	0	0	11
Djahi Binet	F	22	2-3	0-0	3-4	6	3	1	0	7
Chiante' Tramble	G	17	3-5	1-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	7
Tegra Izay	C	14	1-3	0-0	4-4	3	1	0	1	6
Israel Hart	G	20	0-1	0-1	2-2	0	3	1	1	2
Robert Cowherd	G	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
EJ Paymon	F	4	0-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Fallou Diagne	C	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Dalyn Brandon	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.8Possessions71.8

129.5Offensive Efficiency119.8

119.8Defensive Efficiency129.5

9.7Net Efficiency-9.7

52.4%Effective FG%54.5%

59.1%True Shooting %62.5%

12.6%Turnover Rate15.3%

52.4%Free Throw Rate48.2%

34.9%3-Point Rate28.6%

1.22Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 7 points. The game played at approximately 71.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.