UC Davis

19-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

44.3%UC Davis

55.7%Idaho State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIdaho State -1.7

PROJECTED TOTAL154.3

MODEL MONEYLINEIdaho State -126

Idaho State

13-20

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUC Davis 76

Projected Total154.3

Projected ScoreIdaho State 78

Team Comparison

UC DavisMetricIdaho State

48.4MMH Power Index45.9

107.2Offensive Efficiency111.0

103.7Defensive Efficiency113.4

3.5Net Efficiency-2.4

-1.9Strength of Schedule0.2

-0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.6

72.4Tempo67.1

52.3%Effective FG%52.2%

17.7%Turnover Rate16.5%

26.7%Offensive Rebound %33.9%

41.5%Free Throw Rate39.1%

2.5Average Margin-1.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC Davis HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC Davis holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.4–45.9), defensive efficiency (103.7–113.4), net efficiency (3.5–-2.4), recent form (-0.1–-9.6).

Idaho State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (111.0–107.2), strength of schedule (0.2–-1.9), ball security (16.5–17.7).

Final

UC Davis

93—83

Idaho State

UC Davis by 10 • 65.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

UC DavisTEAM STATIdaho State

34-57FG23-48

60.0%FG%48.0%

4-163PT12-26

25.0%3PT%46.0%

21-23FT25-33

91.0%FT%76.0%

25Rebounds28

6Offensive Rebounds11

15Assists14

6Turnovers11

4Steals—

2Blocks2

24Fouls20

Player Box Score

UC Davis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Connor Sevilla	G	33	4-7	1-2	9-9	2	1	0	0	18
Nils Cooper	G	33	4-7	0-1	5-6	6	2	1	0	13
Isaiah Chappell	F	25	5-8	3-4	0-0	7	2	0	0	13
Niko Rocak	F	23	6-10	0-4	1-1	5	1	1	1	13
Cyril Franklin Jr.	G	16	5-6	0-0	0-1	0	0	0	1	10
Brayden Fagbemi	G	19	4-5	0-0	1-1	1	2	2	0	9
Carl Daughtery Jr.	G	11	2-4	0-1	3-3	2	0	0	0	7
Marcus Wilson	G	23	1-4	0-2	2-2	2	5	0	0	4
Omer Suljanovic	F	7	2-4	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	4
Jalen Stokes	G	10	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	2	0	0	2

Idaho State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	BLK	PTS
Louis Bond	G	17	5-7	3-4	6-8	0	2	0	19
Connor Hollenbeck	F	35	3-9	1-5	10-12	8	2	0	17
Lachlan Brewer	G	37	5-8	3-6	3-3	4	1	0	16
Caleb Van De Griend	F	24	5-9	1-1	2-4	8	2	1	13
Martin Kheil	G	28	2-6	2-6	0-0	1	2	0	6
Cheikh Sow	G	13	1-3	1-2	2-2	2	0	0	5
Jamison Guerra	PG	23	1-3	1-2	0-0	1	3	0	3
Evan Otten	F	11	1-3	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	3
Blake Daberkow	F	5	0-0	0-0	1-2	2	1	1	1
Quin Patterson	G	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

65.8Possessions65.8

141.3Offensive Efficiency126.1

126.1Defensive Efficiency141.3

15.2Net Efficiency-15.2

63.2%Effective FG%60.4%

68.5%True Shooting %65.2%

8.8%Turnover Rate17.3%

40.4%Free Throw Rate68.8%

28.1%3-Point Rate54.2%

2.50Assist / Turnover1.27

Game Summary

UC Davis won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 65.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.