Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

59.2%Illinois State

40.8%Drake

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -2.0

PROJECTED TOTAL147.7

MODEL MONEYLINEIllinois State -145

Drake

14-20

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 75

Projected Total147.7

Projected ScoreDrake 73

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricDrake

54.3MMH Power Index46.4

110.6Offensive Efficiency109.5

101.4Defensive Efficiency109.1

9.2Net Efficiency0.4

1.0Strength of Schedule0.3

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-11.3

67.5Tempo68.6

54.3%Effective FG%52.2%

16.8%Turnover Rate14.9%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %27.2%

32.0%Free Throw Rate34.4%

6.2Average Margin0.2

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY59.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–46.4), offensive efficiency (110.6–109.5), defensive efficiency (101.4–109.1), net efficiency (9.2–0.4).

Drake COUNTERS WITHball security (14.9–16.8), free throw rate (34.4–32.0).

Final

Illinois State

73—56

Drake

Illinois State by 17 • 66.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATDrake

26-41FG19-56

63.0%FG%34.0%

13-233PT7-26

57.0%3PT%27.0%

8-12FT11-18

67.0%FT%61.0%

37Rebounds20

4Offensive Rebounds7

15Assists10

23Turnovers9

4Steals12

1Blocks—

17Fouls14

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chase Walker	F	23	6-7	0-0	5-7	3	3	0	0	17
Johnny Kinziger	G	36	5-8	3-5	2-4	6	3	1	0	15
Boden Skunberg	G	32	5-8	3-6	1-1	5	2	0	0	14
Landon Wolf	G	29	5-6	4-5	0-0	5	1	0	0	14
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	21	3-3	2-2	0-0	2	1	1	0	8
Landon Moore	G	16	1-4	1-3	0-0	3	2	1	0	3
Ty Pence	G	28	1-4	0-1	0-0	6	2	0	0	2
Brandon Lieb	F	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	1	0
Mason Klabo	G	7	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	1	0	0

Drake

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Okku Federiko	F	25	4-10	1-3	2-4	3	2	4	11
Jalen Quinn	G	32	3-13	0-2	4-8	2	2	0	10
Andrew Alia	G	33	3-6	3-5	0-0	4	0	2	9
Owen Larson	G	30	3-9	0-4	0-0	3	3	1	6
Eli Shetlar	G	24	2-3	1-2	1-2	3	1	2	6
Braden Appelhans	G	22	2-8	1-5	0-0	2	1	3	5
Wilguens Jr. Exacte	F	18	2-6	1-5	0-0	1	1	0	5
Griffen Goodbary	F	12	0-0	0-0	2-2	0	0	0	2
Isaiah Carr	F	4	0-1	0-0	2-2	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

66.2Possessions66.2

110.3Offensive Efficiency84.6

84.6Defensive Efficiency110.3

25.7Net Efficiency-25.7

79.3%Effective FG%40.2%

78.2%True Shooting %43.4%

35.0%Turnover Rate13.5%

29.3%Free Throw Rate32.1%

56.1%3-Point Rate46.4%

0.65Assist / Turnover1.11

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 17 points. The game played at approximately 66.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.