Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

26.3%Texas State

73.7%Troy

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTroy -7.8

PROJECTED TOTAL150.3

MODEL MONEYLINETroy -280

Troy

22-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 71

Projected Total150.3

Projected ScoreTroy 79

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricTroy

49.4MMH Power Index54.1

107.7Offensive Efficiency112.6

103.4Defensive Efficiency103.9

4.3Net Efficiency8.7

-4.7Strength of Schedule-2.2

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency2.0

68.6Tempo70.4

51.3%Effective FG%52.1%

18.4%Turnover Rate17.1%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %35.3%

36.0%Free Throw Rate36.8%

2.9Average Margin6.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Troy HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTroy holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.1–49.4), offensive efficiency (112.6–107.7), net efficiency (8.7–4.3), strength of schedule (-2.2–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–103.9), recent form (9.1–2.0).

Final

Texas State

80—100

Troy

Troy by 20 • 68.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATTroy

31-63FG35-57

49.0%FG%61.0%

9-203PT10-16

45.0%3PT%63.0%

9-14FT20-32

64.0%FT%63.0%

30Rebounds33

14Offensive Rebounds13

17Assists18

13Turnovers8

5Steals12

4Blocks5

23Fouls11

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
DJ Hall	F	33	10-16	2-3	0-0	9	4	0	0	22
Mark Drone	G	35	8-17	2-4	2-2	2	8	1	1	20
Franck Emmou	G	27	4-8	2-4	3-4	2	0	0	0	13
Jalen Bolden	G	24	3-9	2-6	0-0	6	1	0	0	8
Makai Willis	C	15	1-4	0-1	4-6	2	0	0	1	6
Kyndall Davis	G	20	2-2	1-1	0-0	1	0	1	0	5
Robert Fields	C	15	2-2	0-0	0-2	2	1	2	1	4
Tay Knox	C	14	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	2	1	1	2
Kaden Gumbs	G	16	0-3	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Jaelyn Lee	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Troy

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Thomas Dowd	F	36	10-14	1-3	1-2	6	3	1	3	22
Cooper Campbell	G	36	6-9	4-5	3-4	2	6	5	0	19
Theo Seng	F	25	5-9	0-1	4-4	3	1	0	0	14
Jerrell Bellamy	C	19	4-4	0-0	5-8	7	1	0	2	13
Victor Valdes	F	24	3-7	0-0	5-10	4	5	1	0	11
Cobi Campbell	G	31	3-7	2-4	1-2	0	0	1	0	9
Kerrington Kiel	F	16	3-5	2-2	1-2	9	1	3	0	9
Austin Cross	G	13	1-2	1-1	0-0	0	1	1	0	3

Advanced Game Stats

68.0Possessions68.0

117.6Offensive Efficiency147.1

147.1Defensive Efficiency117.6

-29.4Net Efficiency29.4

56.3%Effective FG%70.2%

57.4%True Shooting %69.3%

18.9%Turnover Rate11.9%

22.2%Free Throw Rate56.1%

31.7%3-Point Rate28.1%

1.31Assist / Turnover2.25

Game Summary

Troy won by 20 points. The game played at approximately 68.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.