James Madison

18-15

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

24.8%James Madison

75.2%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -8.5

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -303

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreJames Madison 74

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreArkansas State 83

Team Comparison

James MadisonMetricArkansas State

52.3MMH Power Index57.7

110.5Offensive Efficiency113.1

109.4Defensive Efficiency105.3

1.1Net Efficiency7.8

1.2Strength of Schedule-1.0

7.9Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

67.5Tempo73.3

53.3%Effective FG%52.7%

17.3%Turnover Rate19.4%

30.5%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

36.6%Free Throw Rate39.6%

0.7Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–52.3), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.5), defensive efficiency (105.3–109.4), net efficiency (7.8–1.1).

James Madison COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.2–-1.0), shooting efficiency (53.3–52.7), ball security (17.3–19.4).

Final

James Madison

78—74

Arkansas State

James Madison by 4 • 71.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

James MadisonTEAM STATArkansas State

27-51FG25-70

53.0%FG%36.0%

8-173PT8-32

47.0%3PT%25.0%

16-26FT16-27

62.0%FT%59.0%

38Rebounds42

7Offensive Rebounds20

11Assists12

15Turnovers8

5Steals9

5Blocks2

23Fouls18

Player Box Score

James Madison

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Cliff Davis	G	35	7-12	5-7	5-5	2	1	2	0	24
Justin McBride	F	32	7-13	2-4	5-7	7	4	0	1	21
Gabe Newhof	F	20	7-9	0-0	1-2	5	1	0	1	15
Eli Wilborn	F	13	3-3	0-0	0-2	4	0	1	0	6
Preston Fowler	F	17	1-3	0-2	2-2	4	0	0	0	4
Bradley Douglas	G	22	1-5	1-2	0-0	2	3	0	0	3
Oriekose Egbule	G	18	1-3	0-0	0-2	2	0	1	0	2
Kose Egbule	G	18	1-3	0-0	0-2	2	0	1	0	2
Ike Cornish	G	8	0-0	0-0	2-4	3	0	0	0	2
Christian Brown	F	8	0-0	0-0	1-2	3	1	0	2	1
Eddie Ricks III	F	27	0-3	0-2	0-0	4	1	1	1	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Matt Hayman	G	25	8-15	5-8	2-2	5	1	1	1	23
Chandler Jackson	G	29	8-17	0-4	3-6	1	6	2	0	19
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	26	3-8	1-3	5-5	8	0	1	1	12
Jalen Hampton	G	31	2-6	0-1	1-3	13	2	0	0	5
Christian Harmon	G	23	1-8	1-8	2-3	2	1	0	0	5
Joey Chammaa	G	12	1-2	1-1	2-2	0	0	2	0	5
Aly Tounkara	F	17	1-4	0-0	0-2	6	0	1	0	2
Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	14	1-3	0-1	0-2	2	0	1	0	2
Royal Blue Smith	G	10	0-2	0-2	1-2	2	1	1	0	1
TJ Caldwell	G	13	0-5	0-4	0-0	2	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.1Possessions71.1

109.7Offensive Efficiency104.1

104.1Defensive Efficiency109.7

5.6Net Efficiency-5.6

60.8%Effective FG%41.4%

61.6%True Shooting %44.7%

21.0%Turnover Rate11.3%

51.0%Free Throw Rate38.6%

33.3%3-Point Rate45.7%

0.73Assist / Turnover1.50

Game Summary

James Madison won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 71.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, True Shooting %, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.