Virginia

30-6

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

61.6%Virginia

38.4%NC State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADVirginia -1.8

PROJECTED TOTAL157.3

MODEL MONEYLINEVirginia -160

NC State

20-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreVirginia 80

Projected Total157.3

Projected ScoreNC State 78

Team Comparison

VirginiaMetricNC State

68.9MMH Power Index60.1

119.0Offensive Efficiency118.4

101.8Defensive Efficiency108.6

17.2Net Efficiency9.8

5.2Strength of Schedule6.4

6.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-11.9

67.6Tempo70.2

55.0%Effective FG%55.1%

16.0%Turnover Rate13.1%

37.4%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

33.2%Free Throw Rate35.7%

11.6Average Margin6.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Virginia HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY61.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMVirginia holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (68.9–60.1), offensive efficiency (119.0–118.4), defensive efficiency (101.8–108.6), net efficiency (17.2–9.8).

NC State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.4–5.2), shooting efficiency (55.1–55.0), ball security (13.1–16.0).

Final

Virginia

76—61

NC State

Virginia by 15 • 64.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

VirginiaTEAM STATNC State

26-52FG18-50

50.0%FG%36.0%

13-333PT5-20

39.0%3PT%25.0%

11-15FT20-25

73.0%FT%80.0%

36Rebounds24

9Offensive Rebounds7

14Assists7

14Turnovers10

3Steals9

3Blocks1

19Fouls15

Player Box Score

Virginia

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Sam Lewis	G	25	8-12	5-9	2-4	0	1	1	0	23
Thijs De Ridder	F	23	4-6	1-2	5-7	6	1	1	0	14
Malik Thomas	G	25	5-15	3-8	0-0	7	2	0	0	13
Devin Tillis	F	24	4-4	2-2	0-0	4	1	1	0	10
Chance Mallory	G	26	2-6	1-5	2-2	2	4	0	0	7
Dallin Hall	G	33	2-6	1-5	0-0	6	4	0	0	5
Johann Grunloh	C	23	1-2	0-1	0-0	4	0	0	2	2
Ugonna Onyenso	C	17	0-0	0-0	2-2	5	1	0	1	2
Elijah Gertrude	G	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

NC State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Quadir Copeland	G	34	5-11	2-4	3-4	2	4	1	0	15
Paul McNeil Jr.	G	30	3-7	2-6	5-8	4	1	0	1	13
Alyn Breed	G	24	3-7	0-2	6-6	0	0	3	0	12
Darrion Williams	F	31	3-8	1-2	0-0	5	1	4	0	7
Ven-Allen Lubin	F	30	2-6	0-1	3-4	5	0	0	0	7
Matt Able	G	18	1-5	0-2	3-3	1	0	1	0	5
Terrance Arceneaux	G	11	1-3	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Musa Sagnia	F	13	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Tre Holloman	G	9	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.5Possessions64.5

117.8Offensive Efficiency94.6

94.6Defensive Efficiency117.8

23.3Net Efficiency-23.3

62.5%Effective FG%41.0%

64.3%True Shooting %49.3%

21.8%Turnover Rate15.4%

28.8%Free Throw Rate50.0%

63.5%3-Point Rate40.0%

1.00Assist / Turnover0.70

Game Summary

Virginia won by 15 points. The game played at approximately 64.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.