Ball State

12-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

19.1%Ball State

80.9%Buffalo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBuffalo -9.5

PROJECTED TOTAL146.5

MODEL MONEYLINEBuffalo -424

Buffalo

17-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBall State 68

Projected Total146.5

Projected ScoreBuffalo 78

Team Comparison

Ball StateMetricBuffalo

41.3MMH Power Index49.7

101.7Offensive Efficiency114.9

104.7Defensive Efficiency112.2

-3.0Net Efficiency2.7

-3.9Strength of Schedule0.0

-0.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-5.9

66.4Tempo67.9

48.3%Effective FG%56.1%

16.0%Turnover Rate16.1%

26.5%Offensive Rebound %27.6%

33.0%Free Throw Rate40.4%

-2.0Average Margin1.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Buffalo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBuffalo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.7–41.3), offensive efficiency (114.9–101.7), net efficiency (2.7–-3.0), strength of schedule (0.0–-3.9).

Ball State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.7–112.2), recent form (-0.9–-5.9), ball security (16.0–16.1).

Final

Ball State

72—85

Buffalo

Buffalo by 13 • 64.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Ball StateTEAM STATBuffalo

22-55FG29-51

40.0%FG%57.0%

9-253PT10-22

36.0%3PT%45.0%

19-23FT17-18

83.0%FT%94.0%

28Rebounds30

13Offensive Rebounds8

15Assists19

12Turnovers13

11Steals9

2Blocks2

16Fouls14

Player Box Score

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Devon Barnes	G	25	4-9	3-7	9-10	1	2	1	0	20
Davion Hill	G	24	5-10	3-4	4-4	6	2	1	0	17
Armoni Zeigler	G	29	6-13	0-4	3-6	5	2	3	0	15
Elmore James IV	G	32	4-11	3-7	0-0	2	1	1	1	11
Mason Jones	F	32	1-4	0-1	1-1	4	5	3	1	3
Preston Copeland	F	20	1-3	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	0	2
Cam Denson	F	16	1-4	0-1	0-0	2	2	1	0	2
Jai Anthoni Bearden	F	7	0-1	0-1	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Kody Clancy	G	15	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Buffalo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ryan Sabol	G	34	6-10	4-5	6-6	4	5	1	0	22
Tim Oboh	C	22	8-10	0-0	5-6	5	1	2	2	21
Angelo Brizzi	G	30	5-8	3-5	2-2	3	1	1	0	15
Noah Batchelor	G	30	5-9	2-5	0-0	4	2	1	0	12
Daniel Freitag	G	37	3-10	1-6	2-2	5	5	3	0	9
Derrick Talton Jr.	G	22	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	4	0	0	2
Mikhail Pocknett	F	13	0-1	0-0	2-2	4	0	1	0	2
Ezra McKenna	F	12	1-2	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

64.8Possessions64.8

111.1Offensive Efficiency131.2

131.2Defensive Efficiency111.1

-20.1Net Efficiency20.1

48.2%Effective FG%66.7%

54.6%True Shooting %71.4%

18.5%Turnover Rate20.1%

41.8%Free Throw Rate35.3%

45.5%3-Point Rate43.1%

1.25Assist / Turnover1.46

Game Summary

Buffalo won by 13 points. The game played at approximately 64.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.