UC Santa Barbara

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

41.3%UC Santa Barbara

58.7%Cal State Northridge

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCal State Northridge -2.7

PROJECTED TOTAL159.3

MODEL MONEYLINECal State Northridge -142

Cal State Northridge

20-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUC Santa Barbara 78

Projected Total159.3

Projected ScoreCal State Northridge 81

Team Comparison

UC Santa BarbaraMetricCal State Northridge

51.4MMH Power Index50

113.2Offensive Efficiency107.3

106.1Defensive Efficiency105.2

7.1Net Efficiency2.1

-2.0Strength of Schedule-0.6

-1.7Last 10 Net Efficiency1.8

68.5Tempo75.9

54.8%Effective FG%51.0%

18.7%Turnover Rate17.3%

32.5%Offensive Rebound %32.9%

37.9%Free Throw Rate34.7%

4.8Average Margin1.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC Santa Barbara HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY58.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC Santa Barbara holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (51.4–50.0), offensive efficiency (113.2–107.3), net efficiency (7.1–2.1), shooting efficiency (54.8–51.0).

Cal State Northridge COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (105.2–106.1), strength of schedule (-0.6–-2.0), recent form (1.8–-1.7).

Final

UC Santa Barbara

65—74

Cal State Northridge

Cal State Northridge by 9 • 73.1 estimated possessions

Team Stats

UC Santa BarbaraTEAM STATCal State Northridge

21-61FG24-49

34.0%FG%49.0%

6-303PT3-18

20.0%3PT%17.0%

17-20FT23-37

85.0%FT%62.0%

34Rebounds43

10Offensive Rebounds11

10Assists16

14Turnovers16

7Steals8

2Blocks2

30Fouls20

Player Box Score

UC Santa Barbara

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
CJ Shaw	G	32	7-11	1-3	5-5	2	1	1	0	20
Marvin McGhee IV	G	25	4-7	1-4	1-2	6	3	1	0	10
Hosana Kitenge	F	23	3-8	0-0	4-5	3	1	0	0	10
Aidan Mahaney	G	35	1-13	1-9	4-4	1	1	2	0	7
Koat Keat Tong	F	15	2-2	0-0	3-4	6	2	0	0	7
Zion Sensley	G	30	2-10	2-8	0-0	7	2	0	1	6
Zachiah Clark	G	18	1-4	1-3	0-0	4	0	2	0	3
Colin Smith	F	19	1-6	0-3	0-0	3	0	1	0	2
Evans Kipruto	C	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0

Cal State Northridge

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Larry Hughes II	G	35	7-15	2-9	7-7	2	2	4	1	23
Mahmoud Fofana	F	35	7-10	0-0	0-1	11	3	0	1	14
Josiah Davis	G	36	3-6	0-2	6-10	3	4	0	0	12
Joshua O'Garro	G	35	4-5	1-1	2-4	6	3	3	0	11
James Evans Jr.	G	12	0-3	0-1	5-10	2	1	0	0	5
Aleks Szymczyk	C	8	2-3	0-0	0-1	1	1	0	0	4
Jordan Brinson	G	17	0-2	0-1	3-4	4	1	1	0	3
Davius Loury	F	13	1-3	0-2	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Jai Chisolm	G	7	0-2	0-2	0-0	2	1	0	0	0
Grady Lewis	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

73.1Possessions73.1

88.9Offensive Efficiency101.2

101.2Defensive Efficiency88.9

-12.3Net Efficiency12.3

39.3%Effective FG%52.0%

46.1%True Shooting %55.6%

18.8%Turnover Rate22.4%

32.8%Free Throw Rate75.5%

49.2%3-Point Rate36.7%

0.71Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Cal State Northridge won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 73.1 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.