Penn State

12-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

2.7%Penn State

97.3%Michigan State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMichigan State -24.2

PROJECTED TOTAL152.1

MODEL MONEYLINEMichigan State -3604

Michigan State

27-8

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScorePenn State 64

Projected Total152.1

Projected ScoreMichigan State 88

Team Comparison

Penn StateMetricMichigan State

42.3MMH Power Index69.8

109.2Offensive Efficiency117.0

117.6Defensive Efficiency101.5

-8.4Net Efficiency15.5

5.3Strength of Schedule7.2

-20.8Last 10 Net Efficiency9.5

67.5Tempo67.3

53.4%Effective FG%54.1%

15.6%Turnover Rate17.2%

25.6%Offensive Rebound %37.7%

34.6%Free Throw Rate36.6%

-5.7Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Michigan State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY97.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMichigan State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (69.8–42.3), offensive efficiency (117.0–109.2), defensive efficiency (101.5–117.6), net efficiency (15.5–-8.4).

Penn State COUNTERS WITHball security (15.6–17.2).

Final

Penn State

85—90

Michigan State

Michigan State by 5 • 72.7 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Penn StateTEAM STATMichigan State

28-53FG32-68

53.0%FG%47.0%

10-243PT6-23

42.0%3PT%26.0%

19-25FT20-24

76.0%FT%83.0%

32Rebounds36

8Offensive Rebounds15

20Assists24

14Turnovers10

4Steals8

4Blocks5

22Fouls21

Player Box Score

Penn State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ace Baldwin Jr.	Guard	40	4-8	1-4	11-12	3	9	0	0	20
D'Marco Dunn	Guard	35	7-13	4-7	0-0	5	2	1	0	18
Zach Hicks	Forward	37	4-7	4-7	2-2	4	2	1	0	14
Yanic Konan Niederhauser	Forward	22	5-8	0-0	3-3	4	3	0	3	13
Nick Kern Jr.	Guard	21	3-5	0-0	2-7	7	3	1	0	8
Freddie Dilione V	G	20	2-7	0-4	1-1	2	1	1	1	5
Kachi Nzeh	F	16	2-2	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	4
Puff Johnson	G	6	1-3	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Miles Goodman	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Michigan State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Frankie Fidler	Forward	20	8-13	1-4	1-2	7	2	4	0	18
Jaden Akins	Guard	28	6-13	3-8	1-1	6	3	1	1	16
Tre Holloman	G	27	3-9	1-5	3-4	0	6	1	1	10
Coen Carr	F	18	3-6	0-0	3-3	0	2	0	0	9
Jeremy Fears Jr.	G	22	1-4	0-0	6-8	2	7	0	0	8
Jase Richardson	Guard	25	3-6	0-2	1-1	2	1	0	0	7
Jaxon Kohler	F	18	3-9	1-3	0-0	6	1	1	1	7
Xavier Booker	F	9	3-4	0-1	1-1	3	0	0	1	7
Carson Cooper	C	20	2-3	0-0	0-0	5	1	0	1	4
Szymon Zapala	Center	13	0-1	0-0	4-4	1	1	1	0	4

Advanced Game Stats

72.7Possessions72.7

116.9Offensive Efficiency123.8

123.8Defensive Efficiency116.9

-6.9Net Efficiency6.9

62.3%Effective FG%51.5%

65.5%True Shooting %56.7%

19.8%Turnover Rate13.4%

47.2%Free Throw Rate35.3%

45.3%3-Point Rate33.8%

1.43Assist / Turnover2.40

Game Summary

Michigan State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 72.7 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.