California Baptist

25-9

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

73.4%California Baptist

26.6%Tarleton State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCalifornia Baptist -4.5

PROJECTED TOTAL144.6

MODEL MONEYLINECalifornia Baptist -276

Tarleton State

14-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCalifornia Baptist 75

Projected Total144.6

Projected ScoreTarleton State 70

Team Comparison

California BaptistMetricTarleton State

58.3MMH Power Index44.6

106.5Offensive Efficiency103.2

99.0Defensive Efficiency101.6

7.5Net Efficiency1.6

1.8Strength of Schedule-2.3

11.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-6.7

68.2Tempo72.2

48.8%Effective FG%49.0%

17.9%Turnover Rate19.9%

37.0%Offensive Rebound %31.8%

37.0%Free Throw Rate42.8%

5.1Average Margin1.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

California Baptist HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY73.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMCalifornia Baptist holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.3–44.6), offensive efficiency (106.5–103.2), defensive efficiency (99.0–101.6), net efficiency (7.5–1.6).

Tarleton State COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (49.0–48.8), free throw rate (42.8–37.0).

Final

California Baptist

76—81

Tarleton State

Tarleton State by 5 • 74.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

California BaptistTEAM STATTarleton State

28-54FG23-51

52.0%FG%45.0%

7-203PT6-12

35.0%3PT%50.0%

13-18FT29-39

72.0%FT%74.0%

37Rebounds23

11Offensive Rebounds7

12Assists9

21Turnovers14

6Steals13

1Blocks2

28Fouls19

Player Box Score

California Baptist

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dominique Daniels Jr.	G	42	7-15	1-4	10-12	4	4	1	0	25
Rene D'Amelio	F	25	5-5	2-2	0-0	8	1	1	1	12
Bradey Henige	F	34	5-6	0-0	1-1	8	0	1	0	11
Jayden Jackson	G	35	2-8	1-4	2-4	6	4	0	0	7
Miles Daniels	G	18	3-5	1-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	7
Jordan Muller	G	25	2-7	2-7	0-0	0	3	1	0	6
Jonathan Griman	F	15	2-3	0-0	0-0	4	0	1	0	4
Thomas Ndong	F	9	1-1	0-0	0-1	1	0	0	0	2
Devon Malcolm	F	7	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
Martel Williams	G	15	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Tarleton State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dior Johnson	G	29	9-15	1-1	15-20	1	2	3	0	34
Freddy Hicks	G	45	2-8	0-2	8-12	8	1	4	0	12
Leroy Kelly IV	G	32	3-6	2-4	1-2	0	1	3	0	9
Kade Douglas	G	22	3-7	1-3	2-2	0	0	0	0	9
Ocypher Owens	F	29	3-4	2-2	0-0	3	2	1	0	8
Jordan Mizell	G	37	2-7	0-0	3-3	4	1	2	0	7
Andy Sigiscar	F	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	2
Kaia Isaac	G	12	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	2	0	0	0
Chris Mpaka	F	11	0-2	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
DJ Dormu	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

74.6Possessions74.6

101.9Offensive Efficiency108.6

108.6Defensive Efficiency101.9

-6.7Net Efficiency6.7

58.3%Effective FG%51.0%

60.8%True Shooting %58.3%

28.9%Turnover Rate18.3%

33.3%Free Throw Rate76.5%

37.0%3-Point Rate23.5%

0.57Assist / Turnover0.64

Game Summary

Tarleton State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 74.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.