Boise State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

36.0%Boise State

64.0%San Diego State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADSan Diego State -5.5

PROJECTED TOTAL152.1

MODEL MONEYLINESan Diego State -178

San Diego State

22-10

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBoise State 73

Projected Total152.1

Projected ScoreSan Diego State 79

Team Comparison

Boise StateMetricSan Diego State

59.5MMH Power Index60.1

113.9Offensive Efficiency110.3

107.1Defensive Efficiency99.3

6.8Net Efficiency11.0

4.2Strength of Schedule3.8

5.2Last 10 Net Efficiency0.4

68.6Tempo70.8

52.7%Effective FG%53.2%

17.0%Turnover Rate17.2%

33.8%Offensive Rebound %30.8%

42.7%Free Throw Rate39.6%

4.7Average Margin7.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Boise State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY64.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBoise State holds the advantage in offensive efficiency (113.9–110.3), strength of schedule (4.2–3.8), recent form (5.2–0.4), ball security (17.0–17.2).

San Diego State COUNTERS WITHMMH Power Index (60.1–59.5), defensive efficiency (99.3–107.1), net efficiency (11.0–6.8).

Final

Boise State

107—110

San Diego State

San Diego State by 3 • 96.0 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Boise StateTEAM STATSan Diego State

33-79FG39-73

42.0%FG%53.0%

14-423PT11-24

33.0%3PT%46.0%

27-31FT21-32

87.0%FT%66.0%

45Rebounds38

13Offensive Rebounds8

18Assists21

17Turnovers14

6Steals10

1Blocks4

24Fouls29

Player Box Score

Boise State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Javan Buchanan	F	42	10-13	4-6	5-6	5	6	0	0	29
Andrew Meadow	F	51	9-19	2-7	5-6	3	1	3	0	25
Dylan Andrews	G	47	3-17	2-11	8-8	6	6	0	0	16
Drew Fielder	C	38	6-12	3-7	1-2	9	1	0	0	16
Aginaldo Neto	G	32	3-6	3-5	4-4	2	2	0	0	13
Dominic Parolin	F	22	1-1	0-0	2-3	8	0	1	1	4
RJ Keene II	G	15	0-1	0-1	2-2	2	1	2	0	2
Pearson Carmichael	F	14	1-7	0-3	0-0	5	0	0	0	2
Spencer Ahrens	F	12	0-3	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Bhan Buom	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

San Diego State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
BJ Davis	G	41	6-15	3-6	7-9	11	6	4	0	22
Elzie Harrington	G	31	7-11	1-3	5-6	3	1	1	0	20
Reese Dixon-Waters	G	45	5-12	3-5	3-4	5	6	0	0	16
Miles Byrd	G	39	4-11	1-4	4-6	5	2	3	2	13
Pharaoh Compton	F	23	5-6	0-0	1-2	1	0	0	1	11
Magoon Gwath	F	15	3-3	2-2	1-2	0	0	0	0	9
Miles Heide	F	32	4-6	0-0	0-3	6	1	2	0	8
Jeremiah Oden	F	29	3-6	1-4	0-0	3	1	0	1	7
Taj DeGourville	G	14	2-3	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	4
Sean Newman Jr.	G	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	3	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

96.0Possessions96.0

111.5Offensive Efficiency114.6

114.6Defensive Efficiency111.5

-3.1Net Efficiency3.1

50.6%Effective FG%61.0%

57.1%True Shooting %62.4%

17.4%Turnover Rate14.9%

39.2%Free Throw Rate43.8%

53.2%3-Point Rate32.9%

1.06Assist / Turnover1.50

Game Summary

San Diego State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 96.0 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.