Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

49.5%Illinois State

50.5%Valparaiso

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIllinois State -0.0

PROJECTED TOTAL143.6

MODEL MONEYLINEValparaiso -102

Valparaiso

18-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 72

Projected Total143.6

Projected ScoreValparaiso 72

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricValparaiso

54.3MMH Power Index49.9

110.6Offensive Efficiency106.6

101.4Defensive Efficiency105.8

9.2Net Efficiency0.8

1.0Strength of Schedule0.3

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

67.5Tempo67.5

54.3%Effective FG%48.7%

16.8%Turnover Rate15.6%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %32.4%

32.0%Free Throw Rate40.0%

6.2Average Margin0.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY50.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–49.9), offensive efficiency (110.6–106.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–105.8), net efficiency (9.2–0.8).

Valparaiso COUNTERS WITHrecent form (-0.1–-4.4), ball security (15.6–16.8), offensive rebounding (32.4–28.3).

Final

Illinois State

71—77

Valparaiso

Valparaiso by 6 • 64.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATValparaiso

26-62FG21-41

42.0%FG%51.0%

5-163PT9-12

31.0%3PT%75.0%

14-23FT26-35

61.0%FT%74.0%

36Rebounds28

17Offensive Rebounds4

8Assists12

9Turnovers11

5Steals6

2Blocks3

26Fouls23

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chase Walker	F	30	8-19	0-0	4-8	5	1	0	0	20
Johnny Kinziger	G	34	5-10	2-4	5-6	3	3	3	0	17
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	28	4-10	1-2	4-5	3	2	0	0	13
Landon Wolf	G	28	2-9	1-4	0-0	7	0	1	0	5
Boden Skunberg	G	24	2-4	0-1	1-2	2	1	1	0	5
Ty Pence	G	19	2-6	0-3	0-0	5	0	0	1	4
Jack Daugherty	F	10	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Landon Moore	G	17	1-2	0-1	0-1	3	1	0	0	2
Brandon Lieb	F	10	1-1	0-0	0-1	5	0	0	1	2

Valparaiso

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Owen Dease	F	35	8-14	3-3	9-9	6	2	0	0	28
JT Pettigrew	F	29	5-9	2-4	9-13	6	2	1	0	21
Rakim Chaney	G	23	3-5	2-2	0-0	3	1	0	1	8
Justus McNair	G	12	1-3	0-0	4-4	1	1	1	0	6
Brody Whitaker	G	28	1-3	1-1	2-5	4	2	2	0	5
Tucker Tornatta	C	7	1-1	1-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	3
Shon Tupuola	C	26	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	1	2
Carter Hopoi	F	17	1-3	0-1	0-2	2	0	0	1	2
Mark Brown Jr.	G	17	0-1	0-0	2-2	0	3	1	0	2
Isaiah Barnes	G	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	1	0	0
Kyonte Thomas	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.8Possessions64.8

109.6Offensive Efficiency118.8

118.8Defensive Efficiency109.6

-9.3Net Efficiency9.3

46.0%Effective FG%62.2%

48.7%True Shooting %66.8%

13.9%Turnover Rate17.0%

37.1%Free Throw Rate85.4%

25.8%3-Point Rate29.3%

0.89Assist / Turnover1.09

Game Summary

Valparaiso won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 64.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.