Troy

22-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

28.7%Troy

71.3%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -6.0

PROJECTED TOTAL159.8

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -248

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTroy 77

Projected Total159.8

Projected ScoreArkansas State 83

Team Comparison

TroyMetricArkansas State

54.1MMH Power Index57.7

112.6Offensive Efficiency113.1

103.9Defensive Efficiency105.3

8.7Net Efficiency7.8

-2.2Strength of Schedule-1.0

2.0Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

70.4Tempo73.3

52.1%Effective FG%52.7%

17.1%Turnover Rate19.4%

35.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

36.8%Free Throw Rate39.6%

6.1Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY71.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.1), offensive efficiency (113.1–112.6), strength of schedule (-1.0–-2.2), recent form (15.2–2.0).

Troy COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), net efficiency (8.7–7.8), ball security (17.1–19.4).

Final

Troy

74—86

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 12 • 75.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

TroyTEAM STATArkansas State

27-65FG26-58

42.0%FG%45.0%

9-283PT12-30

32.0%3PT%40.0%

11-18FT22-29

61.0%FT%76.0%

30Rebounds44

9Offensive Rebounds13

15Assists14

11Turnovers16

9Steals8

5Blocks3

21Fouls17

Player Box Score

Troy

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Theo Seng	F	32	10-13	3-4	0-0	8	2	2	0	23
Thomas Dowd	F	37	6-16	1-6	1-2	10	1	2	4	14
Cooper Campbell	G	35	2-7	0-4	4-6	4	7	2	0	8
Victor Valdes	F	28	1-10	0-3	5-8	2	3	2	0	7
Jerrell Bellamy	C	11	3-5	0-0	1-2	2	0	0	1	7
Cobi Campbell	G	31	2-8	2-6	0-0	1	1	0	0	6
Austin Cross	G	12	2-3	2-3	0-0	1	0	0	0	6
Kerrington Kiel	F	14	1-3	1-2	0-0	2	1	1	0	3

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Christian Harmon	G	29	6-10	4-8	2-2	4	2	0	0	18
Chandler Jackson	G	28	4-6	1-2	8-10	5	2	1	0	17
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	23	5-10	4-6	0-0	5	0	2	0	14
Matt Hayman	G	24	6-17	0-7	1-2	3	4	2	0	13
Joey Chammaa	G	20	2-4	1-2	6-7	4	1	0	0	11
TJ Caldwell	G	17	1-6	1-3	2-4	4	1	1	0	5
Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	10	2-3	1-2	0-0	6	0	0	0	5
Jalen Hampton	G	27	0-0	0-0	2-2	7	2	2	2	2
Chudi Dioramma	F	12	0-2	0-0	1-2	3	1	0	0	1
Aly Tounkara	F	10	0-0	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

75.2Possessions75.2

98.4Offensive Efficiency114.4

114.4Defensive Efficiency98.4

-16.0Net Efficiency16.0

48.5%Effective FG%55.2%

50.3%True Shooting %59.9%

14.6%Turnover Rate21.4%

27.7%Free Throw Rate50.0%

43.1%3-Point Rate51.7%

1.36Assist / Turnover0.88

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 12 points. The game played at approximately 75.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.