Abilene Christian

14-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

32.0%Abilene Christian

68.0%Tarleton State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTarleton State -6.2

PROJECTED TOTAL146.2

MODEL MONEYLINETarleton State -212

Tarleton State

14-18

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreAbilene Christian 70

Projected Total146.2

Projected ScoreTarleton State 76

Team Comparison

Abilene ChristianMetricTarleton State

42.4MMH Power Index44.6

101.1Offensive Efficiency103.2

104.1Defensive Efficiency101.6

-3.0Net Efficiency1.6

-1.4Strength of Schedule-2.3

-5.3Last 10 Net Efficiency-6.7

69.6Tempo72.2

48.9%Effective FG%49.0%

20.6%Turnover Rate19.9%

32.4%Offensive Rebound %31.8%

42.0%Free Throw Rate42.8%

-2.1Average Margin1.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Tarleton State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY68.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTarleton State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (44.6–42.4), offensive efficiency (103.2–101.1), defensive efficiency (101.6–104.1), net efficiency (1.6–-3.0).

Abilene Christian COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-1.4–-2.3), recent form (-5.3–-6.7), offensive rebounding (32.4–31.8).

Final

Abilene Christian

84—80

Tarleton State

Abilene Christian by 4 • 72.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Abilene ChristianTEAM STATTarleton State

29-52FG26-56

56.0%FG%46.0%

7-173PT1-6

41.0%3PT%17.0%

19-26FT27-29

73.0%FT%93.0%

30Rebounds26

10Offensive Rebounds11

15Assists6

18Turnovers14

5Steals12

4Blocks3

26Fouls24

Player Box Score

Abilene Christian

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Bradyn Hubbard	F	35	7-12	2-2	6-7	7	2	1	1	22
Rich Smith	G	31	6-8	0-0	4-7	4	3	2	0	16
Cade Hornecker	F	31	5-7	1-2	1-2	10	2	0	1	12
Zy Wright	G	18	4-8	0-3	4-5	5	2	0	0	12
Yaniel Rivera	G	28	2-9	2-6	0-1	2	3	2	0	6
Joseph Venzant	G	25	2-3	0-1	2-2	0	1	0	0	6
Isaac Dye	G	8	1-2	1-2	2-2	1	0	0	0	5
Cbo Newton	G	10	1-1	1-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Ma'Shy Hill	F	5	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	2
Tylan Lewis	G	6	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	2	0	1	0
Joseph Scott	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Tarleton State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Dior Johnson	G	33	9-19	0-1	15-15	3	0	2	0	33
Kade Douglas	G	29	6-10	1-3	0-0	4	0	3	0	13
Chris Mpaka	F	23	5-9	0-0	1-2	7	1	1	2	11
Cam McDowell	G	21	3-10	0-1	4-4	3	0	1	1	10
Freddy Hicks	G	30	1-2	0-0	3-3	3	1	2	0	5
Leroy Kelly IV	G	22	1-4	0-1	2-2	1	1	2	0	4
Jordan Mizell	G	16	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	1	0	2
DJ Dormu	G	16	0-0	0-0	1-2	1	1	0	0	1
Kaia Isaac	G	6	0-1	0-0	1-1	0	1	0	0	1
Ocypher Owens	F	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.6Possessions72.6

115.7Offensive Efficiency110.2

110.2Defensive Efficiency115.7

5.5Net Efficiency-5.5

62.5%Effective FG%47.3%

65.3%True Shooting %57.3%

24.9%Turnover Rate19.2%

50.0%Free Throw Rate51.8%

32.7%3-Point Rate10.7%

0.83Assist / Turnover0.43

Game Summary

Abilene Christian won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 72.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, Net Efficiency, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.