Cal Poly

14-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

28.9%Cal Poly

71.1%Cal State Northridge

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCal State Northridge -7.3

PROJECTED TOTAL169.7

MODEL MONEYLINECal State Northridge -246

Cal State Northridge

20-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal Poly 81

Projected Total169.7

Projected ScoreCal State Northridge 89

Team Comparison

Cal PolyMetricCal State Northridge

46.5MMH Power Index50

107.2Offensive Efficiency107.3

111.0Defensive Efficiency105.2

-3.8Net Efficiency2.1

1.7Strength of Schedule-0.6

2.4Last 10 Net Efficiency1.8

76.6Tempo75.9

52.2%Effective FG%51.0%

19.8%Turnover Rate17.3%

29.9%Offensive Rebound %32.9%

35.8%Free Throw Rate34.7%

-2.9Average Margin1.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Cal State Northridge HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY71.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMCal State Northridge holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (50.0–46.5), offensive efficiency (107.3–107.2), defensive efficiency (105.2–111.0), net efficiency (2.1–-3.8).

Cal Poly COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.7–-0.6), recent form (2.4–1.8), shooting efficiency (52.2–51.0).

Final

Cal Poly

90—95

Cal State Northridge

Cal State Northridge by 5 • 80.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal PolyTEAM STATCal State Northridge

29-70FG35-67

41.0%FG%52.0%

16-443PT9-20

36.0%3PT%45.0%

16-21FT16-27

76.0%FT%59.0%

32Rebounds49

10Offensive Rebounds15

12Assists20

13Turnovers14

12Steals6

2Blocks—

20Fouls20

Player Box Score

Cal Poly

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Hamad Mousa	G	35	11-25	7-16	5-6	7	3	1	0	34
Cayden Ward	G	36	6-13	4-6	5-8	5	2	6	0	21
Peter Bandelj	G	35	4-12	2-7	3-4	5	2	3	0	13
Guzman Vasilic	G	31	3-12	3-12	0-0	3	0	0	0	9
Kieran Elliott	G	23	3-4	0-1	2-2	4	1	0	1	8
Jake Davis	G	25	1-2	0-1	1-1	3	4	2	0	3
Ali Assran	F	9	1-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Luka Tarlac	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Aaron Price Jr.	PF	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Austin Goode	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Cal State Northridge

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Josiah Davis	G	40	8-11	1-1	6-10	8	15	2	23
Joshua O'Garro	G	35	7-16	1-3	5-6	11	0	0	20
James Evans Jr.	G	28	6-10	5-6	0-0	5	2	2	17
Mahmoud Fofana	F	29	7-8	0-0	2-4	7	0	0	16
Grady Lewis	F	12	4-6	0-0	0-2	3	0	0	8
Davius Loury	F	26	1-8	1-4	2-2	4	2	1	5
Jai Chisolm	G	24	1-6	1-6	0-0	6	0	1	3
Aleks Szymczyk	C	6	1-2	0-0	1-3	1	1	0	3

Advanced Game Stats

80.9Possessions80.9

111.2Offensive Efficiency117.4

117.4Defensive Efficiency111.2

-6.2Net Efficiency6.2

52.9%Effective FG%59.0%

56.3%True Shooting %59.5%

15.7%Turnover Rate17.8%

30.0%Free Throw Rate40.3%

62.9%3-Point Rate29.9%

0.92Assist / Turnover1.43

Game Summary

Cal State Northridge won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 80.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.