Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

19.3%Texas State

80.7%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -9.7

PROJECTED TOTAL155.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -418

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 73

Projected Total155.0

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricArkansas State

49.4MMH Power Index57.7

107.7Offensive Efficiency113.1

103.4Defensive Efficiency105.3

4.3Net Efficiency7.8

-4.7Strength of Schedule-1.0

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

68.6Tempo73.3

51.3%Effective FG%52.7%

18.4%Turnover Rate19.4%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

36.0%Free Throw Rate39.6%

2.9Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY80.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–49.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–107.7), net efficiency (7.8–4.3), strength of schedule (-1.0–-4.7).

Texas State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.4–105.3), ball security (18.4–19.4).

Final

Texas State

82—83

Arkansas State

Arkansas State by 1 • 77.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATArkansas State

32-61FG26-64

52.0%FG%41.0%

2-113PT6-24

18.0%3PT%25.0%

16-19FT25-32

84.0%FT%78.0%

32Rebounds43

8Offensive Rebounds19

11Assists16

16Turnovers17

11Steals11

—Blocks1

24Fouls21

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
DJ Hall	F	36	7-12	0-0	2-2	12	3	2	16
Jalen Bolden	G	31	4-6	1-1	3-4	1	0	4	12
Franck Emmou	G	26	4-9	0-3	4-4	0	4	0	12
Kyndall Davis	G	30	4-10	0-4	2-2	6	3	2	10
Makai Willis	C	18	4-5	0-0	2-2	4	0	1	10
Jaelyn Lee	G	10	3-4	1-2	0-0	1	0	0	7
Robert Fields	C	9	2-4	0-0	2-4	2	1	0	6
Tay Knox	C	13	2-2	0-0	1-1	1	0	0	5
Kaden Gumbs	G	15	2-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	4
Mark Drone	G	12	0-6	0-1	0-0	2	0	1	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chandler Jackson	G	26	3-8	1-3	9-11	2	4	3	0	16
Matt Hayman	G	26	6-14	2-6	0-0	1	2	3	0	14
Jalen Hampton	G	28	5-8	0-2	1-1	12	2	0	0	11
Joey Chammaa	G	18	3-5	1-1	4-4	3	1	1	0	11
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	18	2-6	0-3	6-9	9	1	1	0	10
Christian Harmon	G	23	3-8	1-5	2-2	3	2	2	0	9
TJ Caldwell	G	14	1-8	1-3	2-2	3	1	0	0	5
Royal Blue Smith	G	14	1-2	0-1	1-3	1	2	1	0	3
Chudi Dioramma	F	20	1-3	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	1	2
Aly Tounkara	F	8	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0	2
Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

77.6Possessions77.6

105.7Offensive Efficiency107.0

107.0Defensive Efficiency105.7

-1.3Net Efficiency1.3

54.1%Effective FG%45.3%

58.6%True Shooting %52.4%

20.5%Turnover Rate22.0%

31.1%Free Throw Rate50.0%

18.0%3-Point Rate37.5%

0.69Assist / Turnover0.94

Game Summary

Arkansas State won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 77.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.