UC Davis

19-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

42.6%UC Davis

57.4%Cal Poly

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCal Poly -1.6

PROJECTED TOTAL164.3

MODEL MONEYLINECal Poly -135

Cal Poly

14-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUC Davis 81

Projected Total164.3

Projected ScoreCal Poly 83

Team Comparison

UC DavisMetricCal Poly

48.4MMH Power Index46.5

107.2Offensive Efficiency107.2

103.7Defensive Efficiency111.0

3.5Net Efficiency-3.8

-1.9Strength of Schedule1.7

-0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency2.4

72.4Tempo76.6

52.3%Effective FG%52.2%

17.7%Turnover Rate19.8%

26.7%Offensive Rebound %29.9%

41.5%Free Throw Rate35.8%

2.5Average Margin-2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC Davis HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY57.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC Davis holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (48.4–46.5), defensive efficiency (103.7–111.0), net efficiency (3.5–-3.8), shooting efficiency (52.3–52.2).

Cal Poly COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (1.7–-1.9), recent form (2.4–-0.1), offensive rebounding (29.9–26.7).

Final

UC Davis

78—84

Cal Poly

Cal Poly by 6 • 73.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

UC DavisTEAM STATCal Poly

25-63FG24-57

40.0%FG%42.0%

11-283PT10-34

39.0%3PT%29.0%

17-20FT26-28

85.0%FT%93.0%

37Rebounds38

9Offensive Rebounds7

17Assists12

11Turnovers10

6Steals6

—Blocks1

20Fouls18

Player Box Score

UC Davis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Carl Daughtery Jr.	G	32	6-10	4-8	2-2	2	0	0	18
Nils Cooper	G	27	5-8	0-0	8-9	7	5	2	18
Connor Sevilla	G	30	3-14	2-8	3-3	3	2	1	11
Brayden Fagbemi	G	33	2-10	1-1	4-6	3	3	2	9
Marcus Wilson	G	20	3-8	2-5	0-0	2	4	1	8
Isaiah Chappell	F	25	2-7	2-6	0-0	6	1	0	6
Jalen Stokes	G	17	3-4	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	6
Cyril Franklin Jr.	G	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	2
Omer Suljanovic	F	10	0-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	0
Chase Rawlins	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0

Cal Poly

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Hamad Mousa	G	36	6-14	2-8	10-10	10	3	1	0	24
Peter Bandelj	G	22	3-7	3-6	5-6	4	4	1	0	14
Cayden Ward	G	26	2-8	1-5	8-8	8	3	0	1	13
Jake Davis	G	37	5-10	2-6	0-0	6	2	2	0	12
Kieran Elliott	G	26	3-6	0-1	2-2	3	0	1	0	8
Jackson Mosley	PG	23	3-8	1-5	1-2	1	0	0	0	8
Austin Goode	F	11	1-2	1-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Guzman Vasilic	G	19	1-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

73.9Possessions73.9

105.5Offensive Efficiency113.7

113.7Defensive Efficiency105.5

-8.1Net Efficiency8.1

48.4%Effective FG%50.9%

53.8%True Shooting %59.7%

14.8%Turnover Rate13.6%

31.7%Free Throw Rate49.1%

44.4%3-Point Rate59.6%

1.55Assist / Turnover1.20

Game Summary

Cal Poly won by 6 points. The game played at approximately 73.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.