Idaho State

13-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

62.1%Idaho State

37.9%Northern Arizona

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADIdaho State -1.8

PROJECTED TOTAL151.0

MODEL MONEYLINEIdaho State -164

Northern Arizona

10-22

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIdaho State 76

Projected Total151.0

Projected ScoreNorthern Arizona 75

Team Comparison

Idaho StateMetricNorthern Arizona

45.9MMH Power Index36.9

111.0Offensive Efficiency107.1

113.4Defensive Efficiency114.8

-2.4Net Efficiency-7.7

0.2Strength of Schedule-1.8

-9.6Last 10 Net Efficiency-16.5

67.1Tempo66.6

52.2%Effective FG%53.5%

16.5%Turnover Rate15.8%

33.9%Offensive Rebound %24.0%

39.1%Free Throw Rate33.6%

-1.6Average Margin-5.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Idaho State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY62.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIdaho State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (45.9–36.9), offensive efficiency (111.0–107.1), defensive efficiency (113.4–114.8), net efficiency (-2.4–-7.7).

Northern Arizona COUNTERS WITHshooting efficiency (53.5–52.2), ball security (15.8–16.5).

Final

Idaho State

81—79

Northern Arizona

Idaho State by 2 • 64.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Idaho StateTEAM STATNorthern Arizona

29-52FG27-52

56.0%FG%52.0%

6-173PT5-14

35.0%3PT%36.0%

17-21FT20-26

81.0%FT%77.0%

30Rebounds24

12Offensive Rebounds11

10Assists14

14Turnovers11

4Steals8

4Blocks2

20Fouls21

Player Box Score

Idaho State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jamison Guerra	PG	34	9-16	2-3	2-2	2	6	1	0	22
Connor Hollenbeck	F	35	4-8	0-2	8-10	8	0	1	0	16
Martin Kheil	G	35	3-8	1-6	4-6	3	1	0	0	11
Gus Etchison	PG	6	4-6	1-2	1-1	0	1	1	0	10
Lachlan Brewer	G	29	4-5	1-2	0-0	1	1	1	1	9
Caleb Van De Griend	F	20	4-7	1-2	0-0	7	0	0	1	9
Cheikh Sow	G	18	0-1	0-0	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Blake Daberkow	F	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Evan Otten	F	15	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	2	0
Louis Bond	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Northern Arizona

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Karl Poom	F	29	8-12	1-2	5-8	5	0	0	0	22
Chris Komin	G	34	5-6	3-3	3-3	2	1	2	1	16
Arne Osojnik	G	23	5-9	0-2	3-3	1	0	2	1	13
Traivar Jackson	F	23	3-6	0-0	4-4	4	1	0	0	10
Ryan Abelman	G	29	3-5	0-1	0-0	7	3	1	0	6
Isaiah Shaw	G	10	1-4	0-0	3-4	0	0	1	0	5
Kavon Bradford	G	16	1-2	0-0	2-2	0	1	1	0	4
Brennan Peterson	G	34	1-7	1-5	0-2	2	8	1	0	3
Erez Poran	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

64.2Possessions64.2

126.2Offensive Efficiency123.1

123.1Defensive Efficiency126.2

3.1Net Efficiency-3.1

61.5%Effective FG%56.7%

65.3%True Shooting %61.4%

21.9%Turnover Rate17.1%

40.4%Free Throw Rate50.0%

32.7%3-Point Rate26.9%

0.71Assist / Turnover1.27

Game Summary

Idaho State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 64.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.