Colorado State

21-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

60.2%Colorado State

39.8%Fresno State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADColorado State -1.0

PROJECTED TOTAL147.6

MODEL MONEYLINEColorado State -151

Fresno State

13-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreColorado State 74

Projected Total147.6

Projected ScoreFresno State 73

Team Comparison

Colorado StateMetricFresno State

55.4MMH Power Index47.1

117.1Offensive Efficiency104.9

109.9Defensive Efficiency104.9

7.2Net Efficiency0.0

0.4Strength of Schedule1.5

4.3Last 10 Net Efficiency-6.0

64.7Tempo69.4

58.6%Effective FG%51.3%

18.3%Turnover Rate18.2%

29.2%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

41.2%Free Throw Rate35.5%

4.6Average Margin0.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Colorado State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY60.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMColorado State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (55.4–47.1), offensive efficiency (117.1–104.9), net efficiency (7.2–0.0), recent form (4.3–-6.0).

Fresno State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.9–109.9), strength of schedule (1.5–0.4), ball security (18.2–18.3).

Final

Colorado State

69—79

Fresno State

Fresno State by 10 • 62.6 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Colorado StateTEAM STATFresno State

26-56FG24-53

46.0%FG%45.0%

8-293PT8-20

28.0%3PT%40.0%

9-12FT23-24

75.0%FT%96.0%

31Rebounds32

10Offensive Rebounds9

11Assists13

11Turnovers7

6Steals7

2Blocks1

20Fouls16

Player Box Score

Colorado State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Brandon Rechsteiner	G	32	6-14	3-9	3-3	0	3	2	0	18
Carey Booth	F	29	6-9	1-3	2-3	9	0	0	1	15
Jevin Muniz	G	34	4-9	2-5	2-2	5	6	1	1	12
Josh Pascarelli	G	33	5-12	1-7	0-0	4	1	1	0	11
Augustinas Kiudulas	F	19	3-5	1-2	0-1	4	1	2	0	7
Rashaan Mbemba	F	17	2-3	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	4
Jase Butler	G	19	0-2	0-1	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Jojo McIver	G	9	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Nikola Djapa	C	8	0-1	0-1	0-1	3	0	0	0	0

Fresno State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jake Heidbreder	G	36	3-6	1-3	16-16	0	1	2	0	23
DeShawn Gory	F	37	7-15	0-4	0-0	10	4	1	0	14
David Douglas Jr.	G	24	4-6	2-4	2-2	2	0	0	0	12
Jac Mani	F	15	3-6	2-3	1-2	3	0	0	1	9
Wilson Jacques	C	28	2-7	0-0	4-4	12	1	2	0	8
Zaon Collins	G	31	3-9	1-3	0-0	3	5	1	0	7
Cameron Faas	G	17	1-3	1-2	0-0	2	0	1	0	3
Bastien Rieber	G	9	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	2	0	0	3
DJ Stickman	G	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

62.6Possessions62.6

110.2Offensive Efficiency126.2

126.2Defensive Efficiency110.2

-16.0Net Efficiency16.0

53.6%Effective FG%52.8%

55.9%True Shooting %61.3%

17.5%Turnover Rate11.2%

21.4%Free Throw Rate45.3%

51.8%3-Point Rate37.7%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.86

Game Summary

Fresno State won by 10 points. The game played at approximately 62.6 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.