Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

54.8%Arkansas State

45.2%South Alabama

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -0.2

PROJECTED TOTAL154.7

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -121

South Alabama

21-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 77

Projected Total154.7

Projected ScoreSouth Alabama 77

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricSouth Alabama

57.7MMH Power Index51.4

113.1Offensive Efficiency110.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.9

7.8Net Efficiency6.4

-1.0Strength of Schedule-3.7

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency3.4

73.3Tempo67.4

52.7%Effective FG%53.2%

19.4%Turnover Rate12.8%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %24.9%

39.6%Free Throw Rate39.8%

5.8Average Margin4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY54.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–51.4), offensive efficiency (113.1–110.3), net efficiency (7.8–6.4), strength of schedule (-1.0–-3.7).

South Alabama COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), shooting efficiency (53.2–52.7), ball security (12.8–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

87—91

South Alabama

South Alabama by 4 • 82.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATSouth Alabama

31-72FG32-69

43.0%FG%46.0%

13-443PT6-27

30.0%3PT%22.0%

12-15FT21-30

80.0%FT%70.0%

51Rebounds33

16Offensive Rebounds6

20Assists12

19Turnovers5

3Steals11

1Blocks2

20Fouls13

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	31	8-14	1-3	1-1	13	0	0	0	18
Royal Blue Smith	G	26	6-14	6-13	0-0	4	3	1	0	18
Matt Hayman	G	28	5-11	3-9	2-2	3	4	0	0	15
Chudi Dioramma	F	20	4-5	0-0	1-2	3	1	0	0	9
Chandler Jackson	G	28	2-4	0-0	2-2	6	4	1	0	6
TJ Caldwell	G	17	2-5	2-5	0-0	3	0	0	1	6
Christian Harmon	G	24	2-9	1-8	0-0	4	5	0	0	5
Aly Tounkara	F	20	2-2	0-0	0-1	7	0	0	0	4
Joey Chammaa	G	13	0-6	0-6	4-5	0	1	1	0	4
Jalen Hampton	G	18	0-2	0-0	2-2	4	2	0	0	2

South Alabama

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chaze Harris	G	40	14-25	0-4	10-15	6	5	3	0	38
Adam Olsen	F	40	4-12	2-7	4-6	4	0	1	1	14
Jayden Cooper	G	38	3-12	1-8	4-6	2	1	2	0	11
Hantz Louis-Jeune	G	34	4-7	2-5	0-0	2	0	1	0	10
Stephen Williams	F	16	3-4	0-0	1-1	5	1	0	0	7
Randy Brady	F	27	1-2	1-1	2-2	9	3	1	1	5
JJ Wheat	G	14	2-3	0-0	0-0	1	2	3	0	4
John Broom	G	16	1-4	0-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

82.2Possessions82.2

105.8Offensive Efficiency110.7

110.7Defensive Efficiency105.8

-4.9Net Efficiency4.9

52.1%Effective FG%50.7%

55.0%True Shooting %54.7%

23.1%Turnover Rate6.1%

20.8%Free Throw Rate43.5%

61.1%3-Point Rate39.1%

1.05Assist / Turnover2.40

Game Summary

South Alabama won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 82.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Turnover Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.