Cal State Fullerton

18-16

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

40.2%Cal State Fullerton

59.8%UC Davis

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC Davis -4.0

PROJECTED TOTAL162.8

MODEL MONEYLINEUC Davis -149

UC Davis

19-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal State Fullerton 79

Projected Total162.8

Projected ScoreUC Davis 83

Team Comparison

Cal State FullertonMetricUC Davis

49.4MMH Power Index48.4

108.8Offensive Efficiency107.2

107.1Defensive Efficiency103.7

1.7Net Efficiency3.5

-1.2Strength of Schedule-1.9

2.7Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.1

76.3Tempo72.4

52.6%Effective FG%52.3%

15.1%Turnover Rate17.7%

25.5%Offensive Rebound %26.7%

39.6%Free Throw Rate41.5%

1.3Average Margin2.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Cal State Fullerton HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY59.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMCal State Fullerton holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.4–48.4), offensive efficiency (108.8–107.2), strength of schedule (-1.2–-1.9), recent form (2.7–-0.1).

UC Davis COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.7–107.1), net efficiency (3.5–1.7), offensive rebounding (26.7–25.5).

Final

Cal State Fullerton

69—74

UC Davis

UC Davis by 5 • 74.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal State FullertonTEAM STATUC Davis

21-56FG24-52

38.0%FG%46.0%

8-243PT5-21

33.0%3PT%24.0%

19-32FT21-31

59.0%FT%68.0%

32Rebounds43

12Offensive Rebounds12

9Assists13

15Turnovers20

7Steals9

4Blocks2

25Fouls22

Player Box Score

Cal State Fullerton

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Joshua Ward	G	37	7-16	3-8	2-6	3	2	2	2	19
Bryce Cofield	G	21	5-9	0-0	3-5	8	2	1	0	13
Jaden Henderson	G	19	4-6	3-4	0-0	1	0	2	0	11
Jefferson De La Cruz Monegro	G	35	1-7	0-2	8-9	7	1	1	0	10
Landon Seaman	F	24	2-6	0-4	3-6	1	2	0	0	7
Christian Williams	G	20	1-3	1-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	3
Davis White	G	9	1-3	1-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	3
KJ Garris	G	11	0-3	0-1	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Kendrick De Luna	F	16	0-3	0-0	1-4	7	0	0	2	1
Bailey Nunn	G	8	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	0	0

UC Davis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Niko Rocak	F	26	5-7	1-1	5-8	5	1	2	1	16
Connor Sevilla	G	28	1-6	1-4	11-13	2	0	1	0	14
Marcus Wilson	G	28	5-9	0-2	2-3	9	3	1	0	12
Nils Cooper	G	19	5-8	1-3	0-0	4	1	2	0	11
Carl Daughtery Jr.	G	31	3-7	2-5	0-0	5	0	1	0	8
Brayden Fagbemi	G	30	3-7	0-1	0-2	4	6	2	0	6
Cyril Franklin Jr.	G	15	1-2	0-1	1-2	2	0	0	1	3
Isaiah Chappell	F	15	1-4	0-3	0-1	9	2	0	0	2
Omer Suljanovic	F	8	0-2	0-1	2-2	1	0	0	0	2

Advanced Game Stats

74.5Possessions74.5

92.6Offensive Efficiency99.3

99.3Defensive Efficiency92.6

-6.7Net Efficiency6.7

44.6%Effective FG%51.0%

48.5%True Shooting %55.5%

20.2%Turnover Rate26.8%

57.1%Free Throw Rate59.6%

42.9%3-Point Rate40.4%

0.60Assist / Turnover0.65

Game Summary

UC Davis won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 74.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, True Shooting %, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.