Cal State Northridge

20-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

29.2%Cal State Northridge

70.8%UC San Diego

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADUC San Diego -6.9

PROJECTED TOTAL156.5

MODEL MONEYLINEUC San Diego -242

UC San Diego

23-11

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreCal State Northridge 75

Projected Total156.5

Projected ScoreUC San Diego 82

Team Comparison

Cal State NorthridgeMetricUC San Diego

50MMH Power Index53.4

107.3Offensive Efficiency108.4

105.2Defensive Efficiency100.7

2.1Net Efficiency7.7

-0.6Strength of Schedule-1.3

1.8Last 10 Net Efficiency5.4

75.9Tempo69.8

51.0%Effective FG%53.1%

17.3%Turnover Rate16.4%

32.9%Offensive Rebound %26.9%

34.7%Free Throw Rate33.2%

1.6Average Margin5.4

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

UC San Diego HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY70.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMUC San Diego holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.4–50.0), offensive efficiency (108.4–107.3), defensive efficiency (100.7–105.2), net efficiency (7.7–2.1).

Cal State Northridge COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-0.6–-1.3), offensive rebounding (32.9–26.9), free throw rate (34.7–33.2).

Final

Cal State Northridge

84—79

UC San Diego

Cal State Northridge by 5 • 72.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Cal State NorthridgeTEAM STATUC San Diego

30-64FG28-67

47.0%FG%42.0%

5-183PT9-30

28.0%3PT%30.0%

19-29FT14-19

66.0%FT%74.0%

46Rebounds32

13Offensive Rebounds9

13Assists14

7Turnovers6

5Steals3

3Blocks4

19Fouls21

Player Box Score

Cal State Northridge

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Josiah Davis	G	36	8-19	0-1	7-8	3	7	1	0	23
James Evans Jr.	G	29	8-11	2-5	4-6	4	1	1	0	22
Larry Hughes II	G	32	4-14	2-6	3-3	1	0	2	0	13
Mahmoud Fofana	F	31	5-5	0-0	2-6	17	2	0	1	12
Joshua O'Garro	G	32	3-9	1-3	3-6	9	1	1	1	10
Davius Loury	F	13	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	2
Grady Lewis	F	5	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Jordan Brinson	G	15	0-1	0-1	0-0	5	2	0	0	0
Aleks Szymczyk	C	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Jai Chisolm	G	3	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	1	0

UC San Diego

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Alex Chaikin	G	30	7-14	6-11	2-2	0	0	0	0	22
Tom Beattie	G	33	4-7	3-6	2-3	3	2	0	1	13
Leo Beath	F	32	4-18	0-9	4-5	4	3	1	0	12
Hudson Mayes	G	26	4-8	0-1	3-3	9	2	2	1	11
Emanuel Prospere II	G	19	4-6	0-1	2-4	2	3	0	1	10
Aidan Burke	G	24	3-3	0-0	1-2	4	0	0	0	7
Trap Johnson	G	9	1-3	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
Dimitrije Vukicevic	C	6	1-3	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	2
Bol Dengdit	F	21	0-5	0-0	0-0	7	3	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.4Possessions72.4

116.0Offensive Efficiency109.1

109.1Defensive Efficiency116.0

6.9Net Efficiency-6.9

50.8%Effective FG%48.5%

54.0%True Shooting %52.0%

9.8%Turnover Rate8.2%

45.3%Free Throw Rate28.4%

28.1%3-Point Rate44.8%

1.86Assist / Turnover2.33

Game Summary

Cal State Northridge won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 72.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.