Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

47.3%Arkansas State

52.7%Troy

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADTroy -2.2

PROJECTED TOTAL159.8

MODEL MONEYLINETroy -111

Troy

22-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 79

Projected Total159.8

Projected ScoreTroy 81

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricTroy

57.7MMH Power Index54.1

113.1Offensive Efficiency112.6

105.3Defensive Efficiency103.9

7.8Net Efficiency8.7

-1.0Strength of Schedule-2.2

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency2.0

73.3Tempo70.4

52.7%Effective FG%52.1%

19.4%Turnover Rate17.1%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %35.3%

39.6%Free Throw Rate36.8%

5.8Average Margin6.1

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY52.7%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–54.1), offensive efficiency (113.1–112.6), strength of schedule (-1.0–-2.2), recent form (15.2–2.0).

Troy COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.9–105.3), net efficiency (8.7–7.8), ball security (17.1–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

74—99

Troy

Troy by 25 • 66.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATTroy

26-61FG34-61

43.0%FG%56.0%

10-243PT12-32

42.0%3PT%38.0%

12-22FT19-21

55.0%FT%90.0%

30Rebounds38

14Offensive Rebounds11

16Assists25

9Turnovers7

3Steals6

1Blocks7

15Fouls20

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
TJ Caldwell	G	18	6-12	3-6	2-2	1	1	0	0	17
Jalen Hampton	G	28	6-12	0-1	3-5	9	2	1	0	15
Christian Harmon	G	25	5-8	4-6	0-0	1	1	0	0	14
Matt Hayman	G	23	4-10	2-6	0-0	3	5	1	0	10
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	19	2-6	1-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	5
Joey Chammaa	G	12	1-2	0-0	3-6	1	1	0	0	5
Chandler Jackson	G	24	1-6	0-1	2-3	0	4	1	0	4
Chudi Dioramma	F	16	1-1	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	1	4
Aly Tounkara	F	17	0-1	0-0	0-0	4	1	0	0	0
Royal Blue Smith	G	14	0-3	0-2	0-2	1	1	0	0	0
Fredy-Salam Sylla	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-2	1	0	0	0	0

Troy

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Thomas Dowd	F	34	8-13	4-8	4-4	10	3	0	2	24
Jerrell Bellamy	C	21	9-11	0-0	4-4	3	0	0	2	22
Victor Valdes	F	34	6-11	1-6	4-5	6	14	3	3	17
Cooper Campbell	G	32	4-9	3-5	2-2	8	3	0	0	13
Cobi Campbell	G	31	3-6	3-6	2-2	1	2	0	0	11
Theo Seng	F	22	3-7	0-3	1-2	6	1	0	0	7
Javen Colbert	G	1	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Austin Cross	G	11	0-1	0-1	2-2	0	1	1	0	2
Kerrington Kiel	F	10	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	2	0	0
Evan Griffin	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Kameryn Mitchell	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

66.8Possessions66.8

110.8Offensive Efficiency148.2

148.2Defensive Efficiency110.8

-37.4Net Efficiency37.4

50.8%Effective FG%65.6%

51.8%True Shooting %69.7%

13.5%Turnover Rate10.5%

36.1%Free Throw Rate34.4%

39.3%3-Point Rate52.5%

1.78Assist / Turnover3.57

Game Summary

Troy won by 25 points. The game played at approximately 66.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.