Northern Colorado

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

66.4%Northern Colorado

33.6%Sacramento State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADNorthern Colorado -4.2

PROJECTED TOTAL163.6

MODEL MONEYLINENorthern Colorado -198

Sacramento State

10-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthern Colorado 84

Projected Total163.6

Projected ScoreSacramento State 80

Team Comparison

Northern ColoradoMetricSacramento State

53.7MMH Power Index43

116.0Offensive Efficiency106.1

107.6Defensive Efficiency112.0

8.4Net Efficiency-5.9

-4.3Strength of Schedule0.9

10.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-7.8

71.1Tempo73.2

56.9%Effective FG%48.5%

15.3%Turnover Rate14.2%

27.9%Offensive Rebound %25.1%

27.8%Free Throw Rate41.8%

6.0Average Margin-4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Northern Colorado HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.4%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMNorthern Colorado holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.7–43.0), offensive efficiency (116.0–106.1), defensive efficiency (107.6–112.0), net efficiency (8.4–-5.9).

Sacramento State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.9–-4.3), ball security (14.2–15.3), free throw rate (41.8–27.8).

Final

Northern Colorado

89—93

Sacramento State

Sacramento State by 4 • 80.2 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Northern ColoradoTEAM STATSacramento State

35-68FG29-69

51.0%FG%42.0%

8-283PT10-32

29.0%3PT%31.0%

11-13FT25-34

85.0%FT%74.0%

39Rebounds39

8Offensive Rebounds13

20Assists17

14Turnovers8

5Steals11

3Blocks3

25Fouls17

Player Box Score

Northern Colorado

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Quinn Denker	G	43	11-18	0-3	7-8	6	11	4	0	29
Vincent Delano	G	28	6-10	1-2	0-0	2	0	0	0	13
Ring Nyeri	F	30	4-8	1-3	2-2	6	0	0	1	11
Zach Bloch	G	33	3-9	3-9	0-1	1	5	1	0	9
Brock Wisne	F	26	4-8	1-3	0-0	7	2	0	0	9
Ibu Yamazaki	F	31	3-10	2-8	0-0	4	0	0	0	8
Egan Shields	C	30	3-3	0-0	2-2	8	2	0	1	8
Ariik Mawien	G	3	1-2	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	2
Hunter Caldwell	C	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Sacramento State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Prophet Johnson	G	44	9-18	2-7	10-12	5	3	3	2	30
Mark Lavrenov	F	45	6-14	1-2	4-6	17	2	1	0	17
Jahni Summers	G	33	6-12	3-6	2-2	3	4	2	0	17
Shaqir O'Neal	F	26	4-7	2-4	1-3	7	2	0	0	11
Jayden Teat	G	14	2-8	2-7	2-2	1	0	0	0	8
Arman Madi	G	31	0-4	0-3	5-7	4	3	4	1	5
Taj Glover	G	23	2-5	0-2	1-2	1	1	1	0	5
Romari Robinson	G	9	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	2	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

80.2Possessions80.2

111.0Offensive Efficiency116.0

116.0Defensive Efficiency111.0

-5.0Net Efficiency5.0

57.4%Effective FG%49.3%

60.0%True Shooting %54.6%

17.5%Turnover Rate10.0%

19.1%Free Throw Rate49.3%

41.2%3-Point Rate46.4%

1.43Assist / Turnover2.13

Game Summary

Sacramento State won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 80.2 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency, Effective FG%.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.