Texas State

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

44.5%Texas State

55.5%Coastal Carolina

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCoastal Carolina -2.5

PROJECTED TOTAL146.3

MODEL MONEYLINECoastal Carolina -125

Coastal Carolina

19-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreTexas State 72

Projected Total146.3

Projected ScoreCoastal Carolina 74

Team Comparison

Texas StateMetricCoastal Carolina

49.4MMH Power Index46.8

107.7Offensive Efficiency104.0

103.4Defensive Efficiency103.0

4.3Net Efficiency1.0

-4.7Strength of Schedule-1.3

9.1Last 10 Net Efficiency-2.0

68.6Tempo70.5

51.3%Effective FG%48.7%

18.4%Turnover Rate15.3%

34.3%Offensive Rebound %27.6%

36.0%Free Throw Rate33.0%

2.9Average Margin0.7

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Texas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY55.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMTexas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (49.4–46.8), offensive efficiency (107.7–104.0), net efficiency (4.3–1.0), recent form (9.1–-2.0).

Coastal Carolina COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.0–103.4), strength of schedule (-1.3–-4.7), ball security (15.3–18.4).

Final

Texas State

70—72

Coastal Carolina

Coastal Carolina by 2 • 68.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Texas StateTEAM STATCoastal Carolina

25-66FG22-53

38.0%FG%42.0%

1-133PT6-26

8.0%3PT%23.0%

19-21FT22-29

90.0%FT%76.0%

39Rebounds37

12Offensive Rebounds7

5Assists4

4Turnovers9

6Steals1

—Blocks1

23Fouls19

Player Box Score

Texas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Mark Drone	G	23	9-21	0-4	6-6	5	1	1	24
DJ Hall	F	30	6-13	0-0	11-11	7	2	0	23
Jaelyn Lee	G	12	3-5	0-2	0-0	4	0	1	6
Kaden Gumbs	G	34	2-12	1-3	0-0	3	2	2	5
Robert Fields	C	16	2-2	0-0	1-2	4	0	0	5
Makai Willis	C	16	1-2	0-0	1-2	3	0	0	3
Kyndall Davis	G	26	1-3	0-1	0-0	4	0	1	2
Franck Emmou	G	16	1-5	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	2
Jalen Bolden	G	14	0-2	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0
Tay Knox	C	13	0-1	0-0	0-0	4	0	1	0

Coastal Carolina

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Joshua Beadle	G	35	11-19	0-4	10-12	7	1	0	0	32
AJ Dancler	G	27	4-9	2-5	3-4	4	3	0	0	13
Rasheed Jones	G	38	2-8	1-5	6-7	3	0	0	0	11
Reggie Hill	F	22	2-4	2-3	0-0	5	0	0	0	6
Derrick Green	F	18	2-2	0-0	0-2	3	0	0	1	4
DaJohn Craig	G	13	1-5	1-4	0-0	3	0	1	0	3
Tristan Thompson	G	12	0-0	0-0	3-4	4	0	0	0	3
Nadjrick Peat	F	19	0-1	0-0	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Braeden MacVicar	F	8	0-4	0-4	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Jerry Ngopot	F	8	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.4Possessions68.4

102.3Offensive Efficiency105.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency102.3

-2.9Net Efficiency2.9

38.6%Effective FG%47.2%

46.1%True Shooting %53.9%

5.9%Turnover Rate13.1%

31.8%Free Throw Rate54.7%

19.7%3-Point Rate49.1%

1.25Assist / Turnover0.44

Game Summary

Coastal Carolina won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 68.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Free Throw Rate, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.