Northern Illinois

9-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

13.5%Northern Illinois

86.5%Ball State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBall State -12.1

PROJECTED TOTAL142.2

MODEL MONEYLINEBall State -641

Ball State

12-19

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreNorthern Illinois 65

Projected Total142.2

Projected ScoreBall State 77

Team Comparison

Northern IllinoisMetricBall State

29.2MMH Power Index41.3

99.7Offensive Efficiency101.7

111.6Defensive Efficiency104.7

-11.9Net Efficiency-3.0

-2.1Strength of Schedule-3.9

-28.8Last 10 Net Efficiency-0.9

69.7Tempo66.4

48.5%Effective FG%48.3%

21.3%Turnover Rate16.0%

31.7%Offensive Rebound %26.5%

39.6%Free Throw Rate33.0%

-8.3Average Margin-2.0

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Ball State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY86.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBall State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (41.3–29.2), offensive efficiency (101.7–99.7), defensive efficiency (104.7–111.6), net efficiency (-3.0–-11.9).

Northern Illinois COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-2.1–-3.9), shooting efficiency (48.5–48.3), offensive rebounding (31.7–26.5).

Final

Northern Illinois

53—58

Ball State

Ball State by 5 • 59.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Northern IllinoisTEAM STATBall State

18-52FG21-47

35.0%FG%45.0%

4-283PT5-18

14.0%3PT%28.0%

13-17FT11-18

76.0%FT%61.0%

34Rebounds29

10Offensive Rebounds5

7Assists9

11Turnovers8

4Steals5

—Blocks2

19Fouls16

Player Box Score

Northern Illinois

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	PTS
Gianni Cobb	G	36	4-8	1-3	2-2	3	2	1	11
Makhai Valentine	G	34	3-16	1-11	3-3	4	1	1	10
Taj Walters	G	35	4-7	1-4	0-0	7	1	0	9
Hassan Washington	F	19	2-3	0-0	3-5	4	1	0	7
Dylan Ducommun	G	14	2-10	1-8	1-1	4	0	0	6
Isaiah Washington	G	15	1-2	0-1	2-4	1	0	0	4
Daemar Kelly	G	24	1-4	0-1	0-0	4	1	2	2
Gustav Winther	F	15	0-1	0-0	2-2	3	1	0	2
Jaylen Wharton	F	8	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	2

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Armoni Zeigler	G	35	7-15	4-6	0-0	3	0	0	0	18
Davion Hill	G	30	7-13	0-3	4-6	8	3	1	1	18
Elmore James IV	G	29	2-5	1-4	2-2	2	1	0	0	7
Kayden Fish	F	25	2-5	0-1	2-4	2	1	1	0	6
Devon Barnes	G	24	2-3	0-1	1-2	3	2	1	0	5
Preston Copeland	F	16	1-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Cam Denson	F	12	0-0	0-0	2-4	1	0	0	0	2
Mason Jones	F	27	0-4	0-2	0-0	4	2	2	1	0
Juwan Maxey	G	2	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

59.9Possessions59.9

88.5Offensive Efficiency96.8

96.8Defensive Efficiency88.5

-8.3Net Efficiency8.3

38.5%Effective FG%50.0%

44.1%True Shooting %52.2%

18.0%Turnover Rate13.7%

32.7%Free Throw Rate38.3%

53.8%3-Point Rate38.3%

0.64Assist / Turnover1.13

Game Summary

Ball State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 59.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.