Arkansas State

20-12

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

83.0%Arkansas State

17.0%Georgia State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -8.7

PROJECTED TOTAL155.1

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -488

Georgia State

10-22

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreArkansas State 82

Projected Total155.1

Projected ScoreGeorgia State 73

Team Comparison

Arkansas StateMetricGeorgia State

57.7MMH Power Index38.9

113.1Offensive Efficiency101.3

105.3Defensive Efficiency107.5

7.8Net Efficiency-6.2

-1.0Strength of Schedule-1.7

15.2Last 10 Net Efficiency-10.9

73.3Tempo69.5

52.7%Effective FG%45.3%

19.4%Turnover Rate15.6%

38.1%Offensive Rebound %28.2%

39.6%Free Throw Rate37.4%

5.8Average Margin-4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY83.0%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

10–1

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–38.9), offensive efficiency (113.1–101.3), defensive efficiency (105.3–107.5), net efficiency (7.8–-6.2).

Georgia State COUNTERS WITHball security (15.6–19.4).

Final

Arkansas State

81—82

Georgia State

Georgia State by 1 • 67.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Arkansas StateTEAM STATGeorgia State

28-57FG25-53

49.0%FG%47.0%

8-243PT12-27

33.0%3PT%44.0%

17-19FT20-22

89.0%FT%91.0%

38Rebounds21

12Offensive Rebounds4

17Assists15

14Turnovers7

5Steals10

1Blocks3

17Fouls16

Player Box Score

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Christian Harmon	G	33	7-15	6-10	3-3	2	2	0	0	23
Matt Hayman	G	24	5-11	1-5	3-3	3	2	0	0	14
Chandler Jackson	G	35	2-3	1-2	6-8	4	6	0	0	11
Jalen Hampton	G	34	5-9	0-2	0-0	12	2	4	0	10
Joey Chammaa	G	17	4-5	0-1	2-2	1	3	0	0	10
Chudi Dioramma	F	11	2-3	0-0	1-1	4	0	0	0	5
Aly Tounkara	F	20	2-4	0-0	0-0	6	1	0	1	4
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	14	1-5	0-2	0-0	2	1	0	0	2
TJ Caldwell	G	8	0-0	0-0	2-2	0	0	1	0	2
Royal Blue Smith	G	4	0-2	0-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Georgia State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jelani Hamilton	G	39	12-21	6-11	8-10	3	1	4	1	38
Joah Chappelle	F	20	4-7	3-4	2-2	4	1	2	1	13
Micah Tucker	G	36	3-9	2-5	2-2	1	5	1	0	10
Malachi Brown	G	23	1-4	0-1	4-4	3	5	0	0	6
Jakai Newton	G	18	1-2	0-0	4-4	0	2	1	0	6
Trey Scott III	F	31	2-7	1-5	0-0	2	1	1	1	5
Anthony Enoh	F	23	1-2	0-1	0-0	3	0	1	0	2
Ayouba Berthe	G	4	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	2
James Cooper	F	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.3Possessions67.3

120.4Offensive Efficiency121.8

121.8Defensive Efficiency120.4

-1.5Net Efficiency1.5

56.1%Effective FG%58.5%

61.3%True Shooting %64.6%

20.6%Turnover Rate10.5%

33.3%Free Throw Rate41.5%

42.1%3-Point Rate50.9%

1.21Assist / Turnover2.14

Game Summary

Georgia State won by 1 points. The game played at approximately 67.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.