Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

20.7%Illinois State

79.3%Belmont

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADBelmont -9.0

PROJECTED TOTAL152.1

MODEL MONEYLINEBelmont -383

Belmont

26-6

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 72

Projected Total152.1

Projected ScoreBelmont 81

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricBelmont

54.3MMH Power Index61.8

110.6Offensive Efficiency118.6

101.4Defensive Efficiency103.7

9.2Net Efficiency14.9

1.0Strength of Schedule-0.2

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency10.0

67.5Tempo70.7

54.3%Effective FG%60.7%

16.8%Turnover Rate17.8%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %28.8%

32.0%Free Throw Rate32.7%

6.2Average Margin10.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Belmont HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY79.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMBelmont holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (61.8–54.3), offensive efficiency (118.6–110.6), net efficiency (14.9–9.2), recent form (10.0–-4.4).

Illinois State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (101.4–103.7), strength of schedule (1.0–-0.2), ball security (16.8–17.8).

Final

Illinois State

69—80

Belmont

Belmont by 11 • 69.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATBelmont

22-58FG29-50

38.0%FG%58.0%

8-283PT9-16

29.0%3PT%56.0%

17-20FT13-21

85.0%FT%62.0%

36Rebounds27

13Offensive Rebounds3

13Assists19

14Turnovers14

9Steals7

3Blocks2

18Fouls16

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Johnny Kinziger	G	33	4-14	3-8	2-2	2	5	1	0	13
Chase Walker	F	30	5-8	0-1	2-3	8	1	2	2	12
Ty Pence	G	28	4-6	0-1	4-5	6	1	2	0	12
Boden Skunberg	G	35	3-10	2-6	2-2	2	2	0	0	10
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	26	2-8	1-5	5-6	5	3	3	0	10
Landon Wolf	G	17	2-6	2-5	2-2	3	0	1	0	8
Mason Klabo	G	10	1-2	0-1	0-0	3	1	0	0	2
Brandon Lieb	F	9	1-2	0-0	0-0	5	0	0	1	2
Landon Moore	G	12	0-2	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Belmont

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Eoin Dillon	F	21	6-8	4-5	0-0	0	3	1	0	16
Jabez Jenkins	G	26	6-8	0-0	2-2	5	0	3	0	14
Tyler Lundblade	G	36	2-7	1-4	6-6	1	1	0	0	11
Sam Orme	F	27	4-7	1-2	0-2	3	0	2	0	9
Isaiah West	G	23	3-4	2-3	0-0	3	8	0	1	8
Jack Smiley	G	22	3-6	1-2	1-2	2	2	1	0	8
Drew Scharnowski	F	18	3-7	0-0	1-5	4	1	0	1	7
Brigham Rogers	F	17	2-2	0-0	3-4	3	4	0	0	7
Aidan Noyes	F	7	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Win Miller	G	3	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

69.8Possessions69.8

98.9Offensive Efficiency114.6

114.6Defensive Efficiency98.9

-15.8Net Efficiency15.8

44.8%Effective FG%67.0%

51.1%True Shooting %66.7%

20.4%Turnover Rate19.7%

34.5%Free Throw Rate42.0%

48.3%3-Point Rate32.0%

0.93Assist / Turnover1.36

Game Summary

Belmont won by 11 points. The game played at approximately 69.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.