Old Dominion

12-21

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

15.7%Old Dominion

84.3%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -12.0

PROJECTED TOTAL160.8

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -537

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreOld Dominion 74

Projected Total160.8

Projected ScoreArkansas State 86

Team Comparison

Old DominionMetricArkansas State

47.2MMH Power Index57.7

107.4Offensive Efficiency113.1

109.8Defensive Efficiency105.3

-2.4Net Efficiency7.8

-0.1Strength of Schedule-1.0

4.1Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

70.9Tempo73.3

50.9%Effective FG%52.7%

15.4%Turnover Rate19.4%

26.1%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

35.2%Free Throw Rate39.6%

-1.7Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY84.3%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–47.2), offensive efficiency (113.1–107.4), defensive efficiency (105.3–109.8), net efficiency (7.8–-2.4).

Old Dominion COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (-0.1–-1.0), ball security (15.4–19.4).

Final

Old Dominion

75—71

Arkansas State

Old Dominion by 4 • 72.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Old DominionTEAM STATArkansas State

28-62FG25-60

45.0%FG%42.0%

8-233PT10-30

35.0%3PT%33.0%

11-14FT11-17

79.0%FT%65.0%

33Rebounds42

5Offensive Rebounds11

19Assists16

9Turnovers15

7Steals9

2Blocks3

17Fouls14

Player Box Score

Old Dominion

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jordan Battle	G	32	5-8	5-8	5-6	2	6	0	0	20
KC Shaw	G	34	6-12	0-0	4-4	5	5	0	0	16
Caelum Swanton-Rodger	F	25	6-10	0-0	1-2	9	2	2	2	13
LJ Thomas	G	27	5-10	0-0	1-2	5	4	1	0	11
Robert Davis Jr.	G	34	2-10	2-9	0-0	0	0	1	0	6
Zacch Wiggins	G	15	2-4	0-1	0-0	3	0	0	0	4
Jared Turner	F	19	1-4	1-4	0-0	3	1	1	0	3
Drew McKenna	G	9	1-4	0-1	0-0	2	1	0	0	2
Scottie Hubbard	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	2	0	0
Donovan Raymond	F	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Christian Harmon	G	34	6-13	4-9	4-6	7	2	1	0	20
TJ Caldwell	G	26	5-8	3-5	1-2	1	0	0	1	14
Jalen Hampton	G	32	5-9	0-3	2-2	12	2	1	0	12
Matt Hayman	G	19	3-10	1-6	0-0	3	2	1	1	7
Chandler Jackson	G	26	2-7	1-2	1-2	3	8	3	0	6
Joey Chammaa	G	11	2-4	1-3	0-0	1	1	2	0	5
Chudi Dioramma	F	10	1-1	0-0	1-3	2	0	0	0	3
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	17	0-5	0-2	2-2	9	0	0	0	2
Royal Blue Smith	G	3	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	2
Aly Tounkara	F	22	0-2	0-0	0-0	2	1	0	1	0

Advanced Game Stats

72.4Possessions72.4

103.6Offensive Efficiency98.1

98.1Defensive Efficiency103.6

5.5Net Efficiency-5.5

51.6%Effective FG%50.0%

54.6%True Shooting %52.1%

12.4%Turnover Rate20.8%

22.6%Free Throw Rate28.3%

37.1%3-Point Rate50.0%

2.11Assist / Turnover1.07

Game Summary

Old Dominion won by 4 points. The game played at approximately 72.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Turnover Rate, Free Throw Rate.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.