Illinois State

23-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

39.4%Illinois State

60.6%Murray State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMurray State -2.8

PROJECTED TOTAL155.8

MODEL MONEYLINEMurray State -154

Murray State

20-13

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIllinois State 77

Projected Total155.8

Projected ScoreMurray State 79

Team Comparison

Illinois StateMetricMurray State

54.3MMH Power Index53.6

110.6Offensive Efficiency115.0

101.4Defensive Efficiency111.0

9.2Net Efficiency4.0

1.0Strength of Schedule3.5

-4.4Last 10 Net Efficiency-9.5

67.5Tempo72.3

54.3%Effective FG%54.0%

16.8%Turnover Rate16.3%

28.3%Offensive Rebound %32.7%

32.0%Free Throw Rate39.1%

6.2Average Margin2.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Illinois State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY60.6%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMIllinois State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (54.3–53.6), defensive efficiency (101.4–111.0), net efficiency (9.2–4.0), recent form (-4.4–-9.5).

Murray State COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (115.0–110.6), strength of schedule (3.5–1.0), ball security (16.3–16.8).

Final

Illinois State

70—65

Murray State

Illinois State by 5 • 68.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Illinois StateTEAM STATMurray State

28-56FG23-60

50.0%FG%38.0%

6-163PT4-22

38.0%3PT%18.0%

8-14FT15-17

57.0%FT%88.0%

37Rebounds33

6Offensive Rebounds7

9Assists8

12Turnovers8

5Steals9

3Blocks3

15Fouls15

Player Box Score

Illinois State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Chase Walker	F	29	8-12	1-2	4-6	5	1	1	1	21
Ty Pence	G	32	6-11	0-2	0-0	5	1	1	0	12
Johnny Kinziger	G	29	3-9	2-5	2-2	3	2	1	0	10
Mason Klabo	G	21	4-7	2-3	0-0	4	1	0	1	10
Landon Wolf	G	32	3-3	1-1	2-3	8	1	0	0	9
Ty'Reek Coleman	G	23	2-7	0-3	0-1	3	2	1	0	4
Landon Moore	G	23	2-6	0-0	0-2	7	1	1	0	4
Brandon Lieb	F	6	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Cameron Barnes	F	5	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Murray State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Fred King	C	29	8-10	0-0	3-5	11	0	2	2	19
Javon Jackson	G	27	6-16	1-4	2-2	4	2	3	1	15
Layne Taylor	G	24	4-6	1-3	0-0	4	5	0	0	9
Roman Domon	G	19	2-6	0-1	4-4	1	0	1	0	8
KJ Tenner	G	16	1-5	1-3	2-2	0	0	2	0	5
JJ Traynor	F	25	1-6	1-3	0-0	2	1	0	0	3
Brayden Shorter	G	13	0-1	0-1	2-2	2	0	0	0	2
Mathis Courbon	G	13	1-4	0-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	2
Brock Vice	F	3	0-0	0-0	2-2	1	0	0	0	2
Mason Miller	F	27	0-3	0-3	0-0	4	0	0	0	0
Dylan Anderson	C	4	0-3	0-3	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

68.9Possessions68.9

101.6Offensive Efficiency94.3

94.3Defensive Efficiency101.6

7.3Net Efficiency-7.3

55.4%Effective FG%41.7%

55.9%True Shooting %47.7%

17.5%Turnover Rate11.6%

25.0%Free Throw Rate28.3%

28.6%3-Point Rate36.7%

0.75Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Illinois State won by 5 points. The game played at approximately 68.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Effective FG%, True Shooting %.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.