UC Davis

19-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

33.5%UC Davis

66.5%Cal State Northridge

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADCal State Northridge -4.9

PROJECTED TOTAL160.7

MODEL MONEYLINECal State Northridge -199

Cal State Northridge

20-14

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreUC Davis 78

Projected Total160.7

Projected ScoreCal State Northridge 83

Team Comparison

UC DavisMetricCal State Northridge

48.4MMH Power Index50

107.2Offensive Efficiency107.3

103.7Defensive Efficiency105.2

3.5Net Efficiency2.1

-1.9Strength of Schedule-0.6

-0.1Last 10 Net Efficiency1.8

72.4Tempo75.9

52.3%Effective FG%51.0%

17.7%Turnover Rate17.3%

26.7%Offensive Rebound %32.9%

41.5%Free Throw Rate34.7%

2.5Average Margin1.6

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Cal State Northridge HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.5%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

6–5

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMCal State Northridge holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (50.0–48.4), offensive efficiency (107.3–107.2), strength of schedule (-0.6–-1.9), recent form (1.8–-0.1).

UC Davis COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (103.7–105.2), net efficiency (3.5–2.1), shooting efficiency (52.3–51.0).

Final

UC Davis

78—94

Cal State Northridge

Cal State Northridge by 16 • 79.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

UC DavisTEAM STATCal State Northridge

26-63FG36-68

41.0%FG%53.0%

10-263PT10-29

38.0%3PT%34.0%

16-25FT12-23

64.0%FT%52.0%

39Rebounds43

10Offensive Rebounds10

18Assists30

13Turnovers13

7Steals7

2Blocks3

19Fouls22

Player Box Score

UC Davis

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Connor Sevilla	G	26	4-7	2-3	5-5	1	2	0	0	15
Marcus Wilson	G	29	4-9	2-4	3-5	5	8	1	0	13
Nils Cooper	G	27	4-11	0-3	4-5	4	0	0	0	12
Isaiah Chappell	F	28	4-11	2-6	0-3	8	0	0	0	10
Niko Rocak	F	17	3-5	1-2	0-0	6	0	0	0	7
Carl Daughtery Jr.	G	20	2-7	2-6	0-0	3	2	2	1	6
Omer Suljanovic	F	9	2-2	0-0	1-3	0	0	1	1	5
Jalen Stokes	G	13	1-5	0-1	2-2	2	2	1	0	4
Brayden Fagbemi	G	20	1-3	0-0	1-2	1	4	2	0	3
Chase Rawlins	G	4	1-3	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Cyril Franklin Jr.	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0
Abdullah Amzil	F	3	0-0	0-0	0-0	1	0	0	0	0

Cal State Northridge

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Mahmoud Fofana	F	26	8-10	0-0	6-9	10	2	1	1	22
Joshua O'Garro	G	34	9-15	2-4	1-3	10	8	3	1	21
Larry Hughes II	G	33	6-10	4-7	1-3	5	0	1	0	17
James Evans Jr.	G	30	4-10	3-6	2-2	5	2	1	0	13
Grady Lewis	F	14	5-5	0-0	1-4	6	0	0	1	11
Josiah Davis	G	25	2-3	0-0	1-2	2	15	1	0	5
Davius Loury	F	11	1-6	1-6	0-0	1	0	0	0	3
Jordan Brinson	G	21	1-5	0-3	0-0	3	3	0	0	2
Jai Chisolm	G	4	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Greg Gazarian	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Robert Thibiant	G	1	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

79.9Possessions79.9

97.6Offensive Efficiency117.6

117.6Defensive Efficiency97.6

-20.0Net Efficiency20.0

49.2%Effective FG%60.3%

52.1%True Shooting %59.6%

16.7%Turnover Rate15.9%

39.7%Free Throw Rate33.8%

41.3%3-Point Rate42.6%

1.38Assist / Turnover2.31

Game Summary

Cal State Northridge won by 16 points. The game played at approximately 79.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.