Montana State

18-14

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

66.2%Montana State

33.8%Sacramento State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADMontana State -4.3

PROJECTED TOTAL157.6

MODEL MONEYLINEMontana State -196

Sacramento State

10-21

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMontana State 81

Projected Total157.6

Projected ScoreSacramento State 77

Team Comparison

Montana StateMetricSacramento State

53.6MMH Power Index43

114.4Offensive Efficiency106.1

104.9Defensive Efficiency112.0

9.5Net Efficiency-5.9

-3.7Strength of Schedule0.9

4.9Last 10 Net Efficiency-7.8

68.1Tempo73.2

55.1%Effective FG%48.5%

14.7%Turnover Rate14.2%

28.1%Offensive Rebound %25.1%

30.7%Free Throw Rate41.8%

6.5Average Margin-4.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Montana State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY66.2%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMMontana State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (53.6–43.0), offensive efficiency (114.4–106.1), defensive efficiency (104.9–112.0), net efficiency (9.5–-5.9).

Sacramento State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.9–-3.7), ball security (14.2–14.7), free throw rate (41.8–30.7).

Final

Montana State

80—83

Sacramento State

Sacramento State by 3 • 71.9 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Montana StateTEAM STATSacramento State

26-64FG32-57

41.0%FG%56.0%

15-353PT8-18

43.0%3PT%44.0%

13-19FT11-14

68.0%FT%79.0%

39Rebounds30

14Offensive Rebounds3

13Assists13

13Turnovers11

9Steals11

4Blocks4

11Fouls13

Player Box Score

Montana State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Jed Miller	G	37	8-15	6-12	3-4	11	5	3	1	25
Christian King	F	35	8-18	3-10	4-4	7	2	0	0	23
Jeremiah Davis	G	29	3-9	2-3	2-2	3	1	1	0	10
Seth Amunrud	G	21	3-8	3-6	0-0	3	0	3	2	9
Jaden Steppe	F	24	3-7	1-3	0-2	7	1	1	0	7
Patrick McMahon	G	35	0-2	0-0	3-6	7	2	1	1	3
Chris Hodges	F	15	1-4	0-0	1-1	1	1	0	0	3
Howie Keene	G	4	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Sacramento State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Prophet Johnson	G	35	12-18	3-5	0-0	5	6	2	0	27
Mikey Williams	G	36	7-16	2-6	7-8	2	5	2	0	23
Mark Lavrenov	F	38	6-7	2-2	3-5	12	0	0	2	17
Arman Madi	G	29	4-4	1-1	0-0	3	0	5	2	9
Jahni Summers	G	26	2-7	0-3	1-1	1	2	0	0	5
Taj Glover	G	7	1-2	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	2
Romari Robinson	G	16	0-2	0-1	0-0	2	0	2	0	0
Shaqir O'Neal	F	13	0-1	0-0	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.9Possessions71.9

111.3Offensive Efficiency115.4

115.4Defensive Efficiency111.3

-4.2Net Efficiency4.2

52.3%Effective FG%63.2%

54.8%True Shooting %65.2%

18.0%Turnover Rate15.4%

29.7%Free Throw Rate24.6%

54.7%3-Point Rate31.6%

1.00Assist / Turnover1.18

Game Summary

Sacramento State won by 3 points. The game played at approximately 71.9 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, True Shooting %, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.