Fresno State

13-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

89.8%Fresno State

10.2%Air Force

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADFresno State -13.7

PROJECTED TOTAL143.9

MODEL MONEYLINEFresno State -880

Air Force

3-29

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreFresno State 79

Projected Total143.9

Projected ScoreAir Force 65

Team Comparison

Fresno StateMetricAir Force

47.1MMH Power Index23

104.9Offensive Efficiency91.3

104.9Defensive Efficiency118.5

0.0Net Efficiency-27.2

1.5Strength of Schedule6.2

-6.0Last 10 Net Efficiency-33.5

69.4Tempo67.4

51.3%Effective FG%49.0%

18.2%Turnover Rate21.9%

28.2%Offensive Rebound %21.4%

35.5%Free Throw Rate35.9%

0.0Average Margin-18.3

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Fresno State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY89.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMFresno State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (47.1–23.0), offensive efficiency (104.9–91.3), defensive efficiency (104.9–118.5), net efficiency (0.0–-27.2).

Air Force COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (6.2–1.5), free throw rate (35.9–35.5).

Final

Fresno State

79—62

Air Force

Fresno State by 17 • 71.4 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Fresno StateTEAM STATAir Force

28-60FG23-59

47.0%FG%39.0%

12-293PT9-26

41.0%3PT%35.0%

11-17FT7-10

65.0%FT%70.0%

38Rebounds36

8Offensive Rebounds8

15Assists13

10Turnovers17

10Steals6

4Blocks4

18Fouls17

Player Box Score

Fresno State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
David Douglas Jr.	G	23	7-11	5-8	2-5	2	0	0	0	21
Jake Heidbreder	G	36	5-12	3-8	1-2	3	3	3	1	14
Zaon Collins	G	20	5-8	1-1	3-4	5	5	2	0	14
Wilson Jacques	C	24	3-8	0-1	1-1	9	2	1	2	7
Bastien Rieber	G	29	2-4	0-1	2-3	3	2	0	0	6
Cameron Faas	G	18	2-5	2-5	0-0	2	1	2	0	6
Jac Mani	F	7	2-3	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	0	4
Aram Soqui Urbano	G	9	1-2	1-2	0-0	0	0	1	0	3
DeShawn Gory	F	20	1-5	0-1	0-0	10	2	1	0	2
Gasper Kocevar	C	9	0-0	0-0	2-2	0	0	0	1	2
Makhan Diouf	F	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Matteo Porto	G	2	0-1	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Air Force

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Ethan Greenberg	G	27	3-8	3-6	2-2	6	1	0	0	11
Kam Sanders	G	22	3-9	1-3	2-3	3	1	1	1	9
Eli Robinson	F	22	4-7	0-0	0-0	1	0	2	1	8
Riley Dering	F	20	4-6	0-0	0-1	6	0	1	1	8
Lucas Hobin	F	28	2-9	1-7	1-1	5	1	0	0	6
Justin Hinds	G	11	2-3	1-1	1-1	2	0	0	0	6
Elliott Taite	G	3	2-2	2-2	0-0	1	0	0	0	6
Brendan Martin	F	13	2-6	1-5	0-1	3	0	1	0	5
A.J. Patterson	G	17	1-3	0-0	1-1	3	5	1	0	3
Wesley Celichowski	C	17	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	2	0	0	0
Kolby Gilles	F	15	0-4	0-0	0-0	3	3	0	0	0
Josh Gatete	F	3	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	0	1	0
Sam Imade	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

71.4Possessions71.4

110.6Offensive Efficiency86.8

86.8Defensive Efficiency110.6

23.8Net Efficiency-23.8

56.7%Effective FG%46.6%

58.0%True Shooting %48.6%

14.3%Turnover Rate23.4%

28.3%Free Throw Rate16.9%

48.3%3-Point Rate44.1%

1.50Assist / Turnover0.76

Game Summary

Fresno State won by 17 points. The game played at approximately 71.4 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Offensive Efficiency, Defensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.