Ball State

12-19

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

7.9%Ball State

92.1%Toledo

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADToledo -15.4

PROJECTED TOTAL148.4

MODEL MONEYLINEToledo -1166

Toledo

19-15

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreBall State 67

Projected Total148.4

Projected ScoreToledo 82

Team Comparison

Ball StateMetricToledo

41.3MMH Power Index58.8

101.7Offensive Efficiency116.0

104.7Defensive Efficiency109.6

-3.0Net Efficiency6.4

-3.9Strength of Schedule2.3

-0.9Last 10 Net Efficiency10.2

66.4Tempo69.8

48.3%Effective FG%55.1%

16.0%Turnover Rate14.6%

26.5%Offensive Rebound %30.4%

33.0%Free Throw Rate30.3%

-2.0Average Margin4.5

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Toledo HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY92.1%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

9–2

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMToledo holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (58.8–41.3), offensive efficiency (116.0–101.7), net efficiency (6.4–-3.0), strength of schedule (2.3–-3.9).

Ball State COUNTERS WITHdefensive efficiency (104.7–109.6), free throw rate (33.0–30.3).

Final

Ball State

55—73

Toledo

Toledo by 18 • 67.8 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Ball StateTEAM STATToledo

16-51FG27-56

31.0%FG%48.0%

4-213PT7-23

19.0%3PT%30.0%

19-27FT12-14

70.0%FT%86.0%

34Rebounds35

11Offensive Rebounds7

7Assists16

14Turnovers13

6Steals9

2Blocks6

13Fouls16

Player Box Score

Ball State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Kayden Fish	F	15	5-12	0-4	4-6	5	0	0	0	14
Armoni Zeigler	G	36	2-11	0-4	9-12	10	3	2	0	13
Devon Barnes	G	25	2-5	2-3	1-2	0	1	0	0	7
Jai Anthoni Bearden	F	6	1-1	1-1	4-4	0	0	0	0	7
Elmore James IV	G	24	2-6	0-3	0-0	1	2	1	0	4
Davion Hill	G	23	1-5	0-2	1-2	3	0	2	1	3
Mason Jones	F	18	1-2	1-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	3
Cam Denson	F	23	1-3	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	2
Preston Copeland	F	17	1-2	0-0	0-1	7	0	0	1	2
Juwan Maxey	G	11	0-4	0-3	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Kody Clancy	G	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Toledo

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Sonny Wilson	G	34	8-15	1-4	2-3	3	7	1	0	19
Sean Craig	F	29	5-8	2-4	3-4	7	2	3	0	15
Leroy Blyden Jr.	G	35	4-10	2-6	3-3	5	3	2	1	13
Jaylan Ouwinga	F	19	5-9	0-2	0-0	9	0	0	0	10
Austin Parks	C	29	1-3	0-1	4-4	4	1	1	5	6
Mynor Strong	G	20	2-5	1-3	0-0	0	2	2	0	5
London Praytor	F	3	1-1	1-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	3
Will James Jr.	G	11	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	1	0	0	2
Kyler Vanderjagt	G	17	0-4	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Toby Nwokolo	F	2	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0
Tyler Ode	G	1	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.8Possessions67.8

81.1Offensive Efficiency107.7

107.7Defensive Efficiency81.1

-26.5Net Efficiency26.5

35.3%Effective FG%54.5%

43.1%True Shooting %58.3%

21.0%Turnover Rate18.9%

52.9%Free Throw Rate25.0%

41.2%3-Point Rate41.1%

0.50Assist / Turnover1.23

Game Summary

Toledo won by 18 points. The game played at approximately 67.8 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.