Marshall

19-13

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

24.2%Marshall

75.8%Arkansas State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADArkansas State -7.9

PROJECTED TOTAL164.0

MODEL MONEYLINEArkansas State -313

Arkansas State

20-12

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreMarshall 78

Projected Total164.0

Projected ScoreArkansas State 86

Team Comparison

MarshallMetricArkansas State

52MMH Power Index57.7

114.7Offensive Efficiency113.1

110.3Defensive Efficiency105.3

4.4Net Efficiency7.8

0.9Strength of Schedule-1.0

-4.9Last 10 Net Efficiency15.2

70.7Tempo73.3

55.2%Effective FG%52.7%

16.5%Turnover Rate19.4%

32.1%Offensive Rebound %38.1%

29.7%Free Throw Rate39.6%

3.1Average Margin5.8

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Arkansas State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY75.8%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

7–4

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMArkansas State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (57.7–52.0), defensive efficiency (105.3–110.3), net efficiency (7.8–4.4), recent form (15.2–-4.9).

Marshall COUNTERS WITHoffensive efficiency (114.7–113.1), strength of schedule (0.9–-1.0), shooting efficiency (55.2–52.7).

Final

Marshall

70—61

Arkansas State

Marshall by 9 • 63.5 estimated possessions

Team Stats

MarshallTEAM STATArkansas State

25-55FG19-58

45.0%FG%33.0%

8-203PT7-32

40.0%3PT%22.0%

12-15FT16-25

80.0%FT%64.0%

36Rebounds38

11Offensive Rebounds18

17Assists13

12Turnovers12

10Steals8

5Blocks4

22Fouls17

Player Box Score

Marshall

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Wilson Dubinsky	G	35	7-10	6-9	3-4	8	2	0	0	23
Shamarrie Hugie	G	20	6-9	1-2	4-4	1	0	1	0	17
Noah Otshudi	G	31	5-12	0-0	2-2	4	2	2	0	12
Matt Van Komen	C	29	3-6	0-0	0-0	8	3	0	5	6
Wyatt Fricks	F	14	3-4	0-1	0-0	2	1	1	0	6
Bryce Slay	G	12	0-2	0-1	3-4	2	0	2	0	3
Landen Joseph	G	10	1-2	1-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	3
Jalen Speer	G	40	0-7	0-4	0-0	7	8	3	0	0
Erich Harding	F	5	0-1	0-0	0-1	1	0	0	0	0
Caleb Hollenbeck	G	4	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	1	0	0	0

Arkansas State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Matt Hayman	G	32	6-15	4-9	1-2	2	1	0	0	17
Christian Harmon	G	34	3-10	2-7	8-10	5	4	2	0	16
Jaxon Ellingsworth	F	21	3-7	1-5	2-2	2	0	0	0	9
Jalen Hampton	G	26	3-3	0-0	0-0	10	1	2	1	6
Chudi Dioramma	F	10	2-3	0-0	1-2	2	1	0	0	5
Joey Chammaa	G	7	1-4	0-2	2-3	1	0	0	0	4
TJ Caldwell	G	19	1-8	0-5	1-2	3	2	1	0	3
Aly Tounkara	F	19	0-3	0-0	1-4	7	2	0	3	1
Chandler Jackson	G	24	0-4	0-3	0-0	5	2	2	0	0
Royal Blue Smith	G	8	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	0	1	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

63.5Possessions63.5

110.2Offensive Efficiency96.1

96.1Defensive Efficiency110.2

14.2Net Efficiency-14.2

52.7%Effective FG%38.8%

56.3%True Shooting %43.6%

19.0%Turnover Rate18.8%

27.3%Free Throw Rate43.1%

36.4%3-Point Rate55.2%

1.42Assist / Turnover1.08

Game Summary

Marshall won by 9 points. The game played at approximately 63.5 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Net Efficiency, Free Throw Rate, Offensive Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.