Idaho State

13-20

GAME THAT MATTERSAT

27.1%Idaho State

72.9%Weber State

MMH WIN PROBABILITY

MODEL SPREADWeber State -7.7

PROJECTED TOTAL157.7

MODEL MONEYLINEWeber State -269

Weber State

16-16

MMH MODEL PROJECTION

Projected ScoreIdaho State 75

Projected Total157.7

Projected ScoreWeber State 83

Team Comparison

Idaho StateMetricWeber State

45.9MMH Power Index50.2

111.0Offensive Efficiency113.6

113.4Defensive Efficiency108.2

-2.4Net Efficiency5.4

0.2Strength of Schedule-3.4

-9.6Last 10 Net Efficiency-1.8

67.1Tempo71.5

52.2%Effective FG%52.6%

16.5%Turnover Rate15.5%

33.9%Offensive Rebound %32.6%

39.1%Free Throw Rate38.3%

-1.6Average Margin3.9

MMH GAME INTELLIGENCE

MODEL READ

Weber State HAS THE EDGE

WIN PROBABILITY72.9%

STATISTICAL ADVANTAGE

8–3

MMH comparison metrics

WHERE THE EDGE COMES FROMWeber State holds the advantage in MMH Power Index (50.2–45.9), offensive efficiency (113.6–111.0), defensive efficiency (108.2–113.4), net efficiency (5.4–-2.4).

Idaho State COUNTERS WITHstrength of schedule (0.2–-3.4), offensive rebounding (33.9–32.6), free throw rate (39.1–38.3).

Final

Idaho State

79—81

Weber State

Weber State by 2 • 67.3 estimated possessions

Team Stats

Idaho StateTEAM STATWeber State

29-54FG28-59

54.0%FG%47.0%

9-223PT9-20

41.0%3PT%45.0%

12-15FT16-20

80.0%FT%80.0%

26Rebounds33

5Offensive Rebounds12

16Assists11

11Turnovers11

7Steals6

4Blocks1

20Fouls17

Player Box Score

Idaho State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Connor Hollenbeck	F	37	9-13	3-7	6-7	7	2	1	0	27
Martin Kheil	G	39	7-12	5-10	0-0	2	0	2	0	19
Evan Otten	F	22	5-9	0-0	3-4	7	1	1	3	13
Lachlan Brewer	G	30	2-4	0-2	3-3	1	3	0	0	7
Blake Daberkow	F	10	3-5	0-0	0-1	3	0	0	1	6
Jamison Guerra	PG	30	2-5	1-1	0-0	4	6	1	0	5
Louis Bond	G	17	1-3	0-0	0-0	0	2	2	0	2
Caleb Van De Griend	F	8	0-1	0-0	0-0	1	1	0	0	0
Cheikh Sow	G	4	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	1	0	0	0
Gus Etchison	PG	3	0-2	0-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0

Weber State

Player	Pos	Min	FG	3PT	FT	REB	AST	STL	BLK	PTS
Tijan Saine Jr.	G	40	8-14	4-6	8-8	1	8	0	0	28
ArDarius Grayson	G	25	4-9	3-5	3-4	1	1	1	0	14
Nigel Burris	F	18	4-7	0-1	3-3	4	0	0	0	11
Viljami Vartiainen	G	33	3-5	2-4	1-1	2	1	0	0	9
Malek Gomma	F	31	4-8	0-0	1-4	10	1	1	0	9
Edwin Suarez Jr.	F	14	4-6	0-0	0-0	2	0	1	0	8
Declan Cutler	F	9	1-1	0-0	0-0	3	0	0	1	2
Duce Paschal	G	25	0-8	0-3	0-0	5	0	3	0	0
David Hansen	F	5	0-1	0-1	0-0	2	0	0	0	0

Advanced Game Stats

67.3Possessions67.3

117.4Offensive Efficiency120.4

120.4Defensive Efficiency117.4

-3.0Net Efficiency3.0

62.0%Effective FG%55.1%

64.6%True Shooting %59.1%

16.4%Turnover Rate16.3%

27.8%Free Throw Rate33.9%

40.7%3-Point Rate33.9%

1.45Assist / Turnover1.00

Game Summary

Weber State won by 2 points. The game played at approximately 67.3 possessions. The largest advanced-stat separations came in Effective FG%, Free Throw Rate, Net Efficiency.

Advanced game metrics are calculated by Mid-Major Hoops from team box-score totals. Possessions are estimated. Highlighted advanced values indicate the stronger result for that metric; lower is better for defensive efficiency and turnover rate.